Basel Switzerland Hard Atp 500 Round of 16

Casper Ruud vs Stan Wawrinka Prediction

Casper Ruud

Rank: #11
82%
VS

Stan Wawrinka

Rank: #158
18%
Predicted Games Played: 21.0
Predicted Winner: Casper Ruud

Player Metrics

Casper Ruud

Form Index: 65.3
ELO Rating: 3013.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1791.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 75.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 18.2
Clay: 30.6
Grass: 34.9
Serve Rating: 97.0
Return Rating: 85.5

Stan Wawrinka

Form Index: 36.6
ELO Rating: 481.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1565.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 82.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 6.4
Clay: 3.4
Grass: 3.5
Serve Rating: 95.6
Return Rating: 85.7

Recent Matches

Casper Ruud

  • Last Match: vs Quentin Halys (2-0) hard Basel 75 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Ugo Humbert (2-0) hard Stockholm 66 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Denis Shapovalov (2-0) hard Stockholm 79 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Sebastian Korda (2-1) hard Stockholm 150 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Marin Cilic (2-0) hard Stockholm 109 min

Stan Wawrinka

  • Last Match: vs Miomir Kecmanovic (2-0) hard Basel 82 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Fabian Marozsan (1-2) hard Shanghai 106 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Damir Dzumhur (0-2) clay Umag 119 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Alvaro Guillen Meza (2-0) clay Umag 73 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Alexander Shevchenko (0-2) clay Gstaad 74 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Casper Ruud
vs
0
Stan Wawrinka
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the Round of 16 at the Basel tournament in Switzerland, Casper Ruud is set to face Stan Wawrinka on hard court. Ruud is favored to win with a probability of 81.84%, while Wawrinka has an 18.16% chance of advancing. The match is predicted to feature a total of 21 games.

Match Analysis

Casper Ruud, currently ranked 11th, exhibits a strong form with a form index of 65.34 and an Elo rating of 3013.43. He has a moderate level of fatigue at 75 minutes from prior matches and a considerable surface strength index of 18.19, indicating solid performance on hard courts. His mean serve index of 96.99 and mean return index of 85.52 highlight his ability to dominate both serve and return games effectively. In contrast, Stan Wawrinka, ranked 158, shows a lower form index of 36.58 and an Elo rating of 481.78, suggesting a significant gap in competitive form. Wawrinka's fatigue level is also higher at 82 minutes, and he holds a surface strength index of just 6.41, indicating challenges on hard courts. Furthermore, the difference in mean serve index (Ruud +1.42) is narrow, but Wawrinka's mean return index (85.72) is slightly better than Ruud's, reflecting his return capabilities. In their last three matches, Ruud has been in excellent form, winning all three encounters without dropping a set, including a recent victory over Quentin Halys in Basel. Conversely, Wawrinka won his last match against Miomir Kecmanovic but previously suffered a loss in Shanghai, highlighting some inconsistency in his performance.

Final Prediction

Casper Ruud's superior ranking, form, and recent performances provide him with a definitive edge going into this match. One key factor to monitor will be Ruud's serve effectiveness, as his ability to maintain high serving standards will likely dictate the overall flow of the match.