Mallorca Spain Grass Atp 250 Semifinals

Corentin Moutet vs Alex Michelsen Prediction

Corentin Moutet

Rank: #89
47%
VS

Alex Michelsen

Rank: #33
53%
Predicted Games Played: 23.0
Predicted Winner: Alex Michelsen

Ranking Trends

Corentin Moutet

  • Current Rank: #89 (2025-06-16)
  • 3 Months Ago: #76 (2025-03-17)
  • 6 Months Ago: #70 (2024-12-23)
  • 9 Months Ago: #70 (2024-09-23)
  • 12 Months Ago: #55 (2024-06-24)

Alex Michelsen

  • Current Rank: #33 (2025-06-16)
  • 3 Months Ago: #33 (2025-03-17)
  • 6 Months Ago: #41 (2024-12-23)
  • 9 Months Ago: #49 (2024-09-23)
  • 12 Months Ago: #62 (2024-06-24)

Player Metrics

Corentin Moutet

Form Index: 62.4
ELO Rating: 1193.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1610.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 400.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 8.7
Clay: 9.3
Grass: 7.9
Serve Rating: 96.5
Return Rating: 88.5

Alex Michelsen

Form Index: 57.8
ELO Rating: 1293.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1609.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 181.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 11.8
Clay: 9.4
Grass: 10.3
Serve Rating: 96.0
Return Rating: 88.8

Recent Matches

Corentin Moutet
✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Learner Tien (2-0) grass Mallorca 109 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Daniel Altmaier (2-0) grass Mallorca 134 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Pedro Martinez (2-1) grass Mallorca 157 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Jacob Fearnley (1-2) grass London 128 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Taylor Fritz (2-1) grass London 174 min

Alex Michelsen
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Roberto Bautista Agut (2-0) grass Mallorca 103 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Brandon Holt (2-0) grass Mallorca 78 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Daniil Medvedev (0-2) grass Halle 85 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Stefanos Tsitsipas (2-0) grass Halle 103 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Francisco Cerundolo (2-1) grass Halle 122 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

1
Corentin Moutet
vs
0
Alex Michelsen
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
1 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

As the semifinal match at the Mallorca tournament unfolds on the grass surface, Corentin Moutet is set to face Alex Michelsen in a highly anticipated clash. The prediction leans slightly in favor of Michelsen, with a win probability of 53.16% compared to Moutet’s 46.84%. The anticipated total number of games played is estimated to be around 23.

Match Analysis

Corentin Moutet currently holds a rank of 89, with a form index of 62.39 and an Elo rating of 1193.34. His fatigue level is notably high at 400 minutes, indicating significant time spent on court in the tournament. Moutet's surface strength index stands at 7.92, with a mean serve index of 96.54 and a mean return index of 88.53. On the other hand, Alex Michelsen, ranked 33, presents a strong profile with a form index of 57.77 and a higher Elo rating of 1293.80. His fatigue level is considerably lower at 181 minutes, suggesting he has conserved energy in this tournament. Michelsen’s surface strength index is a notable 10.30, and while his mean serve index of 96.03 is slightly lower than Moutet’s, his mean return index of 88.79 is indicative of solid performance. In their recent matches, Moutet has shown resilience, winning all three matches in straight sets, including victories over Daniel Altmaier and Learner Tien. However, he has accumulated significant court time, which may impact his performance. Meanwhile, Michelsen has also been impressive, winning his last two matches against tough opponents, including Roberto Bautista Agut, but suffered a loss to Daniil Medvedev in Halle. His recent form suggests he is peaking at the right time, with less wear on his body compared to Moutet.

Final Prediction

Alex Michelsen appears to have the edge in this matchup due to his higher ranking, superior Elo rating, and significantly lower fatigue levels. The key factor to watch will be how Moutet manages his fatigue against Michelsen's fresher form, especially in crucial points during the match.