Rome Italy Clay Masters 1000 Round of 32

Corentin Moutet vs Holger Rune Prediction

Corentin Moutet

Rank: #83
31%
VS

Holger Rune

Rank: #10
69%
Predicted Games Played: 22.0
Predicted Winner: Holger Rune

Ranking Trends

Corentin Moutet

  • Current Rank: #83 (2025-05-05)
  • 3 Months Ago: #65 (2025-02-03)
  • 6 Months Ago: #66 (2024-11-04)
  • 9 Months Ago: #67 (2024-08-05)
  • 12 Months Ago: #83 (2024-05-06)

Holger Rune

  • Current Rank: #10 (2025-05-05)
  • 3 Months Ago: #14 (2025-02-03)
  • 6 Months Ago: #11 (2024-11-04)
  • 9 Months Ago: #17 (2024-08-05)
  • 12 Months Ago: #12 (2024-05-06)

Player Metrics

Corentin Moutet

Form Index: 44.6
ELO Rating: 972.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1556.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 222.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 8.7
Clay: 8.5
Grass: 6.4
Serve Rating: 96.6
Return Rating: 89.0

Holger Rune

Form Index: 54.6
ELO Rating: 2609.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1860.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 177.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 18.8
Clay: 22.6
Grass: 25.3
Serve Rating: 95.9
Return Rating: 85.1

Recent Matches

Corentin Moutet
✅ ✅ ❌ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Ugo Humbert (2-0) clay Rome 69 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Rinky Hijikata (2-1) clay Rome 153 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Harold Mayot (0-2) clay Madrid 73 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Ethan Quinn (1-2) clay Barcelona 142 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Tomas Martin Etcheverry (1-2) clay Monte Carlo 140 min

Holger Rune
✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Francisco Comesana (2-1) clay Rome 177 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Flavio Cobolli (0-1) clay Madrid 43 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Carlos Alcaraz (2-0) clay Barcelona 100 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Karen Khachanov (2-0) clay Barcelona 67 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Casper Ruud (2-0) clay Barcelona 87 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Corentin Moutet
vs
1
Holger Rune
Hard
0 - 1
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In this Round of 32 match at the Masters 1000 tournament in Rome, we have a compelling clash on clay between Corentin Moutet and Holger Rune. The predicted winner is Holger Rune, who holds a significant advantage with a 69.06% probability of winning, while Corentin Moutet stands at 30.94%. The match is expected to feature a total of approximately 22 games.

Match Analysis

Corentin Moutet, currently ranked 83, has a form index of 44.57 and an Elo rating of 972.45. His cumulative fatigue stands at 222 minutes, indicating a demanding tournament thus far. His surface strength index of 8.46 suggests he has struggled on clay compared to his opponent. Moutet's serve index of 96.62 is slightly better than Rune's, while his return index of 89.03 is notably higher, giving him a potential edge in return games. Conversely, 10th-ranked Holger Rune boasts a form index of 54.59 and a robust Elo rating of 2609.18. With 177 minutes of cumulative fatigue, he remains relatively fresh compared to Moutet. Rune's surface strength index of 22.60 reflects his greater proficiency on clay. Although his mean serve index of 95.88 is marginally lower than Moutet’s, Rune's return capabilities, with an index of 85.08, indicate he may struggle compared to Moutet's return game. Recent performances show Moutet won his last two matches convincingly but faced a setback against Harold Mayot. Rune, meanwhile, won his last match against Francisco Comesana but has been inconsistent, with a recent loss to Flavio Cobolli.

Final Prediction

Holger Rune's higher ranking, superior Elo rating, and better overall form make him the clear favorite in this matchup. A key factor to watch will be Rune's ability to manage his serve against Moutet's strong return game, which could dictate the flow of the match.