Shanghai China Hard Masters 1000 Round of 64

Corentin Moutet vs Learner Tien Prediction

Corentin Moutet

Rank: #37
42%
VS

Learner Tien

Rank: #52
58%
Expected Total Games: 23.0
Predicted Winner: Learner Tien

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Ranking Trends

Corentin Moutet

  • Current #37 2025-09-22
  • 3 mo ago #69 2025-06-30
  • 6 mo ago #75 2025-03-31
  • 9 mo ago #70 2024-12-30
  • 12 mo ago #72 2024-09-30

Learner Tien

  • Current #52 2025-09-22
  • 3 mo ago #62 2025-06-30
  • 6 mo ago #69 2025-03-31
  • 9 mo ago #122 2024-12-30
  • 12 mo ago #148 2024-09-30

Player Metrics

Corentin Moutet

Form Index: 42.2
ELO Rating: 1192.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1633.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 9.3
Clay: 9.3
Grass: 8.3
Serve Rating: 96.3
Return Rating: 88.6

Learner Tien

Form Index: 60.1
ELO Rating: 1259.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1652.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 126.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 10.2
Clay: 4.6
Grass: 5.9
Serve Rating: 94.6
Return Rating: 87.9

Recent Matches

Corentin Moutet
❌ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

Learner Tien
✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

1
Corentin Moutet
vs
1
Learner Tien
Hard
0 - 1
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
1 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The match between Corentin Moutet and Learner Tien at the Shanghai Masters 1000 is set to be an intriguing contest on hard courts in China. With both players looking to advance in the tournament, the prediction tilts in favor of Learner Tien, who has a winning probability of 57.66% compared to Moutet's 42.34%. The anticipated total number of games played is projected to be around 23.

Match Analysis

Corentin Moutet, currently ranked 37, holds a form index of 42.22 and an Elo rating of 1192.07, while Learner Tien, ranked 52, has a significantly better form index of 60.06 and an Elo rating of 1259.92. Tien's slightly higher surface strength index of 10.18 compared to Moutet’s 9.31 indicates a marginal advantage on hard courts. Notably, the difference in their mean serve index is marginal at 1.74, which may not be a significant factor in the match. However, Moutet's mean return index of 88.62 is slightly higher than Tien's 87.89, suggesting he could be more effective in returning serves. In their recent performances, Moutet has struggled, winning only one of his last three matches, including a hard-fought loss against Alexander Zverev in Beijing. Conversely, Tien has shown a more favorable form by winning his last match against Miomir Kecmanovic in Shanghai and securing a victory against Lorenzo Musetti in the prior round, despite a loss to Jannik Sinner. This trend indicates that Tien is in better form heading into this encounter.

Final Prediction

Learner Tien appears to have the edge over Corentin Moutet due to his superior form, recent successes, and slightly higher overall performance metrics. A key factor to watch during the match will be Tien's ability to maintain composure and capitalize on Moutet's mistakes, especially given the latter's recent inconsistency.

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