Australian Open Australia Hard Grand Slam Round of 128

Tristan Schoolkate vs Corentin Moutet: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Tristan Schoolkate

Rank: #97
21%
VS

Corentin Moutet

Rank: #32
79%
Expected Total Games: 38.6
Predicted Winner: Corentin Moutet

Also available in Claude. Query these predictions in plain language — our native connector lets Claude call our models on demand, no code.

Set it up

Player Metrics

Tristan Schoolkate

Form Index: 9.1
ELO Rating: 609.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1528.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 2.9
Clay: 4.1
Grass: 3.9
Serve Rating: 81.1
Return Rating: 76.7

Corentin Moutet

Form Index: 32.8
ELO Rating: 1383.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1577.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 29.2
Clay: 26.8
Grass: 29.5
Serve Rating: 97.1
Return Rating: 94.6

Recent Matches

Tristan Schoolkate

  • Last Match: vs Rinky Hijikata (0-2) hard Adelaide 79 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs James Duckworth (0-2) hard Brisbane 71 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Dan Added (1-2) hard Metz 134 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Matteo Arnaldi (0-2) hard Vienna 107 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Lukas Klein (2-0) hard Vienna 114 min

Corentin Moutet

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Tristan Schoolkate
vs
0
Corentin Moutet
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the Round of 128 at the 2026 Australian Open, Tristan Schoolkate faces off against Corentin Moutet on hard courts in Australia. The match is set to be competitive, with Moutet predicted to win, boasting a probability of 79.29% compared to Schoolkate’s 20.71%. The expected total number of games played in the match is approximately 38.65.

Match Analysis

Tristan Schoolkate, currently ranked 97, has a form index of 9.11 and an Elo rating of 609.61. His surface strength index stands at 2.91, which reflects limited effectiveness on hard courts, while his mean serve index of 81.08 suggests a moderate serving capability. In contrast, Corentin Moutet is positioned significantly higher at rank 32, with a form index of 32.76 and an impressive Elo rating of 1383. Moutet’s surface strength index of 29.22 indicates a strong performance on hard courts, complemented by a mean serve index of 97.10. The disparity in their serve indices, exceeding 15 points, suggests that Moutet possesses a considerable advantage in serving ability. Furthermore, Moutet’s mean return index of 94.60 dramatically outperforms Schoolkate’s 76.75, hinting at Moutet's prowess in returning serves effectively. In their recent performances, both players have faced challenges. Schoolkate has lost his last three matches, including a recent straight-sets defeat against Rinky Hijikata, while Moutet has also struggled, losing two out of his last three matches. However, Moutet’s performances indicate more competitiveness, including a match win against Reilly Opelka, showcasing his ability to compete at a higher level.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 38.6 Most likely outcome: 38 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Probability distribution chart for total games in Tristan Schoolkate versus Corentin Moutet. The X-axis shows possible total games values and the Y-axis shows the predicted probability percentage for each outcome.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total games in Tristan Schoolkate versus Corentin Moutet. The curve rises from 0% to 100%, showing the cumulative probability for each games total threshold.

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Tristan Schoolkate - Corentin Moutet) +1.3 Most likely spread: +1 (Tristan Schoolkate wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Probability distribution chart for games spread in Tristan Schoolkate versus Corentin Moutet. Positive values indicate Tristan Schoolkate winning more games, negative values indicate Corentin Moutet winning more games.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for games spread in Tristan Schoolkate versus Corentin Moutet. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each spread threshold.

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The match is expected to feature around 10.5 aces and approximately 5.07 double faults. Given the hard court surface, which tends to balance serving and returning capabilities, the predicted ace count reflects Moutet's superior serving prowess with his higher serve index. It will be interesting to see how these expected double faults play out, as both players may experience pressure during critical moments.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 10.5 Most likely: 10 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 5.1 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Probability distribution chart for total aces in Tristan Schoolkate versus Corentin Moutet. Higher ace counts are more likely on faster surfaces like grass.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total aces in Tristan Schoolkate versus Corentin Moutet. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each aces threshold.

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Probability distribution chart for double faults in Tristan Schoolkate versus Corentin Moutet. Clay surface matches tend to produce more double faults due to fatigue in longer rallies.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for double faults in Tristan Schoolkate versus Corentin Moutet. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each double faults threshold.

Final Prediction

Corentin Moutet's clear advantages in ranking, serving, and returning capabilities position him as the favored player in this matchup. A key factor to watch will be Moutet's ability to utilize his strong serve effectively, potentially dictating the match's pace and outcomes.

Get Daily Tennis Predictions

Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven tennis predictions directly on your phone.

Join Our Telegram Channel