Hangzhou China Hard Atp 250 Finals

Daniil Medvedev vs Andrey Rublev Prediction

Daniil Medvedev

Rank: #6
58%
VS

Andrey Rublev

Rank: #25
42%
Expected Total Games: 24.9
Predicted Winner: Daniil Medvedev

Why the Model Favors Daniil Medvedev

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Recent record by level +6.1 Daniil Medvedev
Recent form +3.0 Daniil Medvedev
Serve & return game +2.4 Andrey Rublev
Surface fit +2.2 Daniil Medvedev
Overall strength +1.4 Daniil Medvedev

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 58% for Daniil Medvedev. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Daniil Medvedev

  • Current #6 2026-09-14
  • 3 mo ago #7 2026-06-15
  • 6 mo ago #10 2026-03-16
  • 9 mo ago #13 2025-12-22
  • 12 mo ago #18 2025-09-22

Andrey Rublev

  • Current #25 2026-09-21
  • 3 mo ago #13 2026-06-22
  • 6 mo ago #16 2026-03-16
  • 9 mo ago #16 2025-12-22
  • 12 mo ago #14 2025-09-22

Player Metrics

Daniil Medvedev

Form Index: 49.9
ELO Rating: 1835.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1886.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 348.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 45.2
Clay: 28.8
Grass: 24.1
Serve Rating: 96.7
Return Rating: 90.9

Andrey Rublev

Form Index: 46.2
ELO Rating: 1769.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1826.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 330.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 30.1
Clay: 37.2
Grass: 22.9
Serve Rating: 96.2
Return Rating: 87.7

Recent Matches

Daniil Medvedev
✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅

Andrey Rublev
✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Daniil Medvedev
vs
0
Andrey Rublev
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Medvedev is a modest favourite, with the forecast giving him 58% to Rublev’s 42%. It projects 24.9 games, pointing to a match that could stay close over three sets.

Match Analysis

The clearest distinction is Medvedev’s stronger standing and better hard-court fit. He is ranked sixth to Rublev’s 25th, and his stronger return game gives him more scope to pressure Rublev’s serve. Both have won their first three Hangzhou matches, so neither arrives with an obvious form deficit. Rublev has a counterweight in the serve-and-return matchup, which keeps the forecast from becoming lopsided. He beat Kyrian Jacquet in straight sets, while Medvedev needed three sets against Coleman Wong before closing with a straight-set win over Roman Safiullin.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 24.9 Most likely outcome: 24 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Daniil Medvedev - Andrey Rublev) +0.9 Most likely spread: 0 (even number of games won)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Medvedev is projected to hit 8.9 aces and Rublev 7.2, with 3.7 and 2.8 double faults respectively. Their serve levels are closely matched, so neither is projected for a major advantage in ace production on the hard court.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 15.4 Most likely: 13 aces Per player: Daniil Medvedev 8.9 + Andrey Rublev 7.2
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 6.5 Most likely: 5 double faults Per player: Daniil Medvedev 3.7 + Andrey Rublev 2.8

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Daniil Medvedev

Expected 8.9 aces

Andrey Rublev

Expected 7.2 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Daniil Medvedev

Expected 3.7 double faults

Andrey Rublev

Expected 2.8 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

43.4% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Daniil Medvedev's perspective)

2-0 Most likely set score (38.0%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Rublev’s serve-and-return advantage gives him his best chance to overturn the forecast. If he uses it to put sustained pressure on Medvedev’s service games, the gap between them could narrow quickly.

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