Hangzhou China Hard Atp 250 Quarterfinals

Daniil Medvedev vs Coleman Wong Prediction

Daniil Medvedev

Rank: #6
70%
VS

Coleman Wong

Rank: #112
30%
Expected Total Games: 25.3
Predicted Winner: Daniil Medvedev

Why the Model Favors Daniil Medvedev

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Recent record by level +10.1 Daniil Medvedev
Surface fit +6.0 Daniil Medvedev
Overall strength +5.8 Daniil Medvedev
Age +3.4 Coleman Wong
Serve & return game +1.6 Daniil Medvedev

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 70% for Daniil Medvedev. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Daniil Medvedev

  • Current #6 2026-09-14
  • 3 mo ago #7 2026-06-15
  • 6 mo ago #10 2026-03-16
  • 9 mo ago #13 2025-12-22
  • 12 mo ago #18 2025-09-22

Coleman Wong

  • Current #112 2026-09-14
  • 3 mo ago #109 2026-06-15
  • 6 mo ago #120 2026-03-16
  • 9 mo ago #151 2025-12-22
  • 12 mo ago #153 2025-09-22

Player Metrics

Daniil Medvedev

Form Index: 46.1
ELO Rating: 1802.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1873.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 109.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 44.0
Clay: 28.8
Grass: 24.1
Serve Rating: 96.7
Return Rating: 90.9

Coleman Wong

Form Index: 60.1
ELO Rating: 1682.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1684.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 223.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 27.0
Clay: 8.3
Grass: 0.2
Serve Rating: 95.6
Return Rating: 85.4

Recent Matches

Daniil Medvedev
✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Valentin Royer (2-0) hard Hangzhou 109 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Frances Tiafoe (0-3) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Arthur Rinderknech (3-0) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Sebastian Gorzny (3-0) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Hugo Gaston (3-0) hard Us Open 174 min

Coleman Wong
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Daniil Medvedev
vs
0
Coleman Wong
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Daniil Medvedev is favored 70% to 30% over Coleman Wong in the Hangzhou Quarterfinals, with 25.3 total games expected. The gap is meaningful but leaves Wong a credible chance to extend his recent hard-court run.

Match Analysis

Medvedev’s stronger record against higher-level opposition and his better hard-court profile support the forecast. He also ranks far higher and is the more effective returner, giving him an advantage in the exchanges when Wong’s first serve does not keep him in control. Wong has won both of his Hangzhou matches, beating Zhizhen Zhang in straight sets before defeating Adolfo Daniel Vallejo in three. Those wins took 223 minutes in total, compared with Medvedev’s 109-minute win over Valentin Royer, so Wong has spent considerably longer on court. His age is a counterweight to Medvedev’s experience and stronger overall standing.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 25.3 Most likely outcome: 25 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Daniil Medvedev - Coleman Wong) +3.0 Most likely spread: +3 (Daniil Medvedev wins 3 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Medvedev is projected for 9.4 aces and 4.4 double faults, while Wong is projected for 7.5 aces and 3.0 double faults. Their serving strength is relatively close, though Medvedev has a slight edge, which fits the higher ace estimate for him on a hard court.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 16.0 Most likely: 14 aces Per player: Daniil Medvedev 9.4 + Coleman Wong 7.5
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 7.3 Most likely: 6 double faults Per player: Daniil Medvedev 4.3 + Coleman Wong 3.0

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Daniil Medvedev

Expected 9.4 aces

Coleman Wong

Expected 7.5 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Daniil Medvedev

Expected 4.3 double faults

Coleman Wong

Expected 3.0 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

44.3% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Daniil Medvedev's perspective)

2-0 Most likely set score (44.6%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Wong’s serve gives him a way to make this closer: if it limits Medvedev’s chances to use his stronger return game, the underdog can put pressure on the forecast.

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