Vienna Austria Hard Atp 500 Round of 16

Daniil Medvedev vs Corentin Moutet Prediction

Daniil Medvedev

Rank: #14
64%
VS

Corentin Moutet

Rank: #36
36%
Predicted Games Played: 23.0
Predicted Winner: Daniil Medvedev

Ranking Trends

Daniil Medvedev

  • Current Rank: #14 (2025-10-20)
  • 3 Months Ago: #14 (2025-07-21)
  • 6 Months Ago: #10 (2025-04-21)
  • 9 Months Ago: #5 (2025-01-13)
  • 12 Months Ago: #5 (2024-10-21)

Corentin Moutet

  • Current Rank: #36 (2025-10-20)
  • 3 Months Ago: #59 (2025-07-21)
  • 6 Months Ago: #82 (2025-04-21)
  • 9 Months Ago: #69 (2025-01-13)
  • 12 Months Ago: #70 (2024-10-21)

Player Metrics

Daniil Medvedev

Form Index: 68.4
ELO Rating: 2986.3
Glicko2 Rating: 2076.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 138.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 29.0
Clay: 35.9
Grass: 40.9
Serve Rating: 96.7
Return Rating: 87.5

Corentin Moutet

Form Index: 61.0
ELO Rating: 1227.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1651.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 67.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 9.7
Clay: 9.3
Grass: 8.4
Serve Rating: 94.9
Return Rating: 88.3

Recent Matches

Daniil Medvedev
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Nuno Borges (2-1) hard Vienna 138 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Corentin Moutet (2-1) hard Almaty 156 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs James Duckworth (2-1) hard Almaty 132 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Fabian Marozsan (2-0) hard Almaty 66 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Adam Walton (2-0) hard Almaty 104 min

Corentin Moutet
✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Damir Dzumhur (2-0) hard Vienna 67 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Daniil Medvedev (1-2) hard Almaty 156 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Alex Michelsen (2-0) hard Almaty 132 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Jan-Lennard Struff (2-0) hard Almaty 110 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Alexander Shevchenko (2-0) hard Almaty 106 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

1
Daniil Medvedev
vs
1
Corentin Moutet
Hard
1 - 1
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the Round of 16 match at the Vienna tournament, set on hard courts, Daniil Medvedev is favored to win against Corentin Moutet. With a predicted win probability of 63.66% for Medvedev compared to 36.34% for Moutet, the expected total number of games played is 23.

Match Analysis

Daniil Medvedev, currently ranked 14th, boasts a form index of 68.38 and an impressive Elo rating of 2986.30. His cumulative fatigue from the current tournament stands at 138 minutes, indicating a solid match load. Medvedev's surface strength index of 29.03 reflects his proficiency on hard courts, complemented by a mean serve index of 96.74 and a mean return index of 87.53. In contrast, Corentin Moutet, ranked 36th, has a lower form index of 60.99 and an Elo rating of 1227.35. His fatigue is significantly lower at 67 minutes, but his surface strength index is just 9.74. The difference in their mean serve index (Medvedev +1.88) and mean return index (Medvedev +1.02) are not substantial but highlight Medvedev's overall edge. In their recent performances, Medvedev has shown resilience, winning his last three matches, including a hard-fought victory against Nuno Borges in Vienna. Notably, he previously defeated Moutet in Almaty, winning in two sets. Moutet's recent form is mixed; he won convincingly against Damir Dzumhur but struggled against Medvedev in their last encounter, losing two sets to one.

Final Prediction

Daniil Medvedev's higher ranking, superior Elo rating, and recent form give him a distinct advantage over Corentin Moutet. A key factor to observe in this match will be Medvedev's serve effectiveness, as his ability to maintain a high mean serve index could be crucial in securing his victory.