Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Daniil Medvedev: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Felix arrives as the higher-ranked player (No. 8) with a strong Elo rating (3934.18) and a solid mean serve index (83.71). He has logged more time on court this week (303 minutes), which shows match rhythm but also higher cumulative fatigue. His surface strength index on hard courts sits at 25.59 and his form index is 64.72. Medvedev, ranked 11, posts a higher form index (69.80) despite a lower Elo value (2341.72) and has been fresher in Dubai with 195 minutes on court. His mean serve index is notably higher at 97.67 and his surface strength index is 14.56. There are meaningful gaps in the underlying tools of the match: Medvedev’s mean serve index exceeds Felix’s by nearly 14 points, and his mean return index (90.19) dwarfs Felix’s (31.81) by a wide margin — both differences exceed the five-point threshold and will likely be decisive. Over their last three matches here, both players have been flawless: Auger-Aliassime won three straight matches in Dubai (matches lasting 110–112–81 minutes), and Medvedev also recorded three clean wins with shorter average durations (56–66–73 minutes), suggesting sharper, more efficient performances from Medvedev this week.