Indian Wells CA, U.S.A. Hard Masters 1000 Quarterfinals

Jack Draper vs Daniil Medvedev: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Jack Draper

Rank: #14
38%
VS

Daniil Medvedev

Rank: #11
62%
Expected Total Games: 23.4
Predicted Winner: Daniil Medvedev

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Ranking Trends

Jack Draper

  • Current #14 2026-03-02
  • 3 mo ago #10 2025-12-01
  • 6 mo ago #5 2025-08-25
  • 9 mo ago #5 2025-05-26
  • 12 mo ago #14 2025-03-03

Daniil Medvedev

  • Current #11 2026-03-02
  • 3 mo ago #13 2025-12-01
  • 6 mo ago #13 2025-08-25
  • 9 mo ago #11 2025-05-26
  • 12 mo ago #6 2025-03-03

Player Metrics

Jack Draper

Form Index: 55.7
ELO Rating: 2969.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1775.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 338.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 24.6
Clay: 24.0
Grass: 23.1
Serve Rating: 74.4
Return Rating: 53.6

Daniil Medvedev

Form Index: 68.3
ELO Rating: 2469.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1997.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 235.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 15.7
Clay: 22.5
Grass: 22.5
Serve Rating: 97.8
Return Rating: 90.2

Recent Matches

Jack Draper
✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅

Daniil Medvedev
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Jack Draper
vs
0
Daniil Medvedev
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

At Indian Wells (hard court), quarterfinal action pits Jack Draper against Daniil Medvedev in a masters_1000 setting. The model favors Medvedev to advance — predicted winner: Daniil Medvedev (61.93%); Jack Draper is given a 38.07% chance. The match is expected to be relatively short for a best-of-three by games, with an anticipated total of about 23.37 games.

Match Analysis

Draper arrives ranked 14 with a strong Elo (2969.04) and a form index of 55.74; his cumulative fatigue in the tournament is 338 minutes and his surface strength index is 24.58. Medvedev is ranked 11, has a lower Elo on the sheet (2469.92) but a higher form index at 68.31, with 235 minutes on court and a surface strength index of 15.71. Notably, Medvedev's mean serve index (97.79) outstrips Draper's (74.44) by more than 5 points, and his mean return index (90.17) is also substantially higher than Draper's (53.58), which are salient contrasts for this hard-court matchup. Both players have been spotless through three rounds here. Draper has won his last three matches at Indian Wells — including a 155-minute victory over Novak Djokovic, plus wins over Francisco Cerundolo and Roberto Bautista Agut — showing match toughness but accumulating more minutes. Medvedev has taken three straight straight-set wins (Alejandro Tabilo, Sebastian Baez, Alex Michelsen) with shorter average durations, suggesting fresher legs deeper into the week. Those recent results align with Medvedev's higher form index and lower fatigue.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.4 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Jack Draper - Daniil Medvedev) +6.5 Most likely spread: +8 (Jack Draper wins 8 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for the match is 8.89 total, while the expected double faults are 6.37. On a medium-paced hard court, those predicted aces are consistent with a balance between serve power and return quality; predicted aces should be influenced heavily by Medvedev's substantially higher serve rating, which points toward him contributing the lion’s share of the ace count. The expected double faults reflect both players’ serving patterns and accumulated fatigue.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 8.9 Most likely: 8 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 6.4 Most likely: 6 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Medvedev’s edge comes from clearly superior recent form, markedly higher serve and return indices, and lower minutes on court during the event. A key factor to watch will be whether Draper can neutralize Medvedev’s serve and generate return breaks early, given Medvedev’s strong serve/return split.

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