Daniil Medvedev vs Stan Wawrinka: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Medvedev arrives ranked 11 with a strong Elo (2341.63) and a form index of 47.8; his surface strength index (12.28) and mean serve index (73.98) are solid while his mean return index (53.31) is moderate. He has accumulated 66 minutes on court in the event, indicating manageable fatigue. Wawrinka, ranked 99 with a much lower Elo (517.22) but a higher form index (55.99), shows exceptional serving and returning metrics: mean serve index 97.14 and mean return index 89.53. The differences in serve (≈23 points) and return (≈36 points) between the two are large and notable, suggesting Wawrinka’s tools remain dangerous despite ranking and match minutes (71 on court) slightly higher than Medvedev’s. Across their last three matches in the data, Medvedev has two recent wins at hard-court events in Dubai and Doha and one loss to Stefanos Tsitsipas in Doha, with match durations around 66–76 minutes. Wawrinka’s recent slate shows two wins (including his Dubai opener) and a straight-sets loss to Alex de Minaur in Rotterdam; his matches have ranged longer, up to 82 minutes, indicating competitive, often physical outings.