Paris France Hard Masters 1000 Round of 64

Denis Shapovalov vs Karen Khachanov Prediction

Denis Shapovalov

Rank: #52
37%
VS

Karen Khachanov

Rank: #24
63%
Expected Total Games: 25.1
Predicted Winner: Karen Khachanov

Why the Model Favors Karen Khachanov

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Surface fit +5.9 Karen Khachanov
Overall strength +2.9 Karen Khachanov
Recent form +2.0 Karen Khachanov
Overall record & opposition quality +1.8 Karen Khachanov
Recent record by level +1.4 Karen Khachanov

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 63% for Karen Khachanov. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Denis Shapovalov

  • Current #52 2026-10-26
  • 3 mo ago #43 2026-08-03
  • 6 mo ago #37 2026-05-04
  • 9 mo ago #25 2026-02-02
  • 12 mo ago #23 2025-11-03

Karen Khachanov

  • Current #24 2026-10-26
  • 3 mo ago #39 2026-08-03
  • 6 mo ago #15 2026-05-04
  • 9 mo ago #18 2026-02-02
  • 12 mo ago #18 2025-11-03

Player Metrics

Denis Shapovalov

Form Index: 42.8
ELO Rating: 1708.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1729.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 32.2
Clay: 11.4
Grass: 9.1
Serve Rating: 96.2
Return Rating: 90.8

Karen Khachanov

Form Index: 46.4
ELO Rating: 1845.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1767.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 35.8
Clay: 26.3
Grass: 30.1
Serve Rating: 96.2
Return Rating: 87.3

Recent Matches

Denis Shapovalov
❌ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

Karen Khachanov
❌ ❌ ✅ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Carlos Alcaraz (0-2) hard Vienna 124 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Alexander Bublik (1-2) hard Almaty 147 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Tomas Machac (2-1) hard Almaty 151 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Rei Sakamoto (2-0) hard Almaty 75 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Alex de Minaur (0-2) hard Shanghai 85 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Denis Shapovalov
vs
0
Karen Khachanov
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Khachanov is favoured, with a 63% win probability to Shapovalov’s 37%, and the forecast is 25.1 games. His advantage is meaningful, but not large enough to rule out a close match.

Match Analysis

The hard-court profile and broader strength both tilt toward Khachanov. He is ranked 24th to Shapovalov’s 52nd, and his edge on this surface is the strongest influence on the forecast. Both players have one win in their last three matches, but Khachanov’s win came against Tomas Machac. Shapovalov has the stronger return, giving him a way to pressure Khachanov even if their serving is closely matched. That matters on a hard court, where Khachanov’s surface advantage could be tested if Shapovalov consistently makes him play points behind his serve.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 25.1 Most likely outcome: 24 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Denis Shapovalov - Karen Khachanov) -1.8 Most likely spread: -2 (Karen Khachanov wins 2 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Shapovalov is projected for 7.8 aces and 5.0 double faults, while Khachanov is forecast for 5.9 aces and 2.6 double faults. Their serve strengths are nearly level, so the higher ace projection for Shapovalov comes with a notably higher expected double-fault count.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 13.4 Most likely: 11 aces Per player: Denis Shapovalov 7.8 + Karen Khachanov 5.9
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 7.5 Most likely: 6 double faults Per player: Denis Shapovalov 5.0 + Karen Khachanov 2.6

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Denis Shapovalov

Expected 7.8 aces

Karen Khachanov

Expected 5.9 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Denis Shapovalov

Expected 5.0 double faults

Karen Khachanov

Expected 2.6 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

44.3% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Denis Shapovalov's perspective)

0-2 Most likely set score (40.6%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Shapovalov’s return gives him his best chance of an upset: if he uses it to keep Khachanov’s service games under pressure, the favourite’s hard-court edge may not be enough.

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