Indian Wells CA, U.S.A. Hard Masters 1000 Round of 128

Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Denis Shapovalov: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Stefanos Tsitsipas

Rank: #30
41%
VS

Denis Shapovalov

Rank: #36
59%
Expected Total Games: 23.6
Predicted Winner: Denis Shapovalov

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Ranking Trends

Stefanos Tsitsipas

  • Current #30 2026-02-23
  • 3 mo ago #34 2025-12-01
  • 6 mo ago #28 2025-08-25
  • 9 mo ago #20 2025-05-26
  • 12 mo ago #9 2025-03-03

Denis Shapovalov

  • Current #36 2026-02-23
  • 3 mo ago #23 2025-12-01
  • 6 mo ago #29 2025-08-25
  • 9 mo ago #31 2025-05-26
  • 12 mo ago #28 2025-03-03

Player Metrics

Stefanos Tsitsipas

Form Index: 32.9
ELO Rating: 1378.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1804.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 8.4
Clay: 9.8
Grass: 10.6
Serve Rating: 76.4
Return Rating: 35.4

Denis Shapovalov

Form Index: 41.1
ELO Rating: 1475.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1599.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 12.2
Clay: 10.8
Grass: 13.2
Serve Rating: 97.6
Return Rating: 90.6

Recent Matches

Stefanos Tsitsipas
❌ ❌ ✅ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Ugo Humbert (0-2) hard Dubai 85 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Andrey Rublev (0-2) hard Doha 95 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Daniil Medvedev (2-0) hard Doha 76 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Moez Echargui (2-0) hard Doha 84 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Botic van de Zandschulp (0-2) hard Rotterdam 109 min

Denis Shapovalov
❌ ❌ ✅ ✅ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Stefanos Tsitsipas
vs
0
Denis Shapovalov
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

At Indian Wells in California, the Masters 1000 opening round on hard courts pits Stefanos Tsitsipas against Denis Shapovalov. The model favors Shapovalov as the projected winner with a 59.39% chance, while Tsitsipas is given a 40.61% probability; the match is expected to contain about 23.63 games in total.

Match Analysis

Tsitsipas enters ranked 30 with a form index of 32.91 and an Elo of 1378.07; his tournament fatigue is zero and his hard-court surface strength index sits at 8.44. Shapovalov is ranked 36 but presents a higher form index (41.12) and a noticeably stronger Elo (1475.44), with identical zero fatigue and a surface strength index of 12.23. The serve metrics are a clear differentiator — Shapovalov’s mean serve index (97.59) outstrips Tsitsipas’s 76.45 by more than 20 points, and his mean return index (90.56) dwarfs Tsitsipas’s 35.36, so both serve and return edges lean heavily toward Shapovalov. Over the last three matches both players show mixed recent results on hard courts. Tsitsipas has one win (over Daniil Medvedev) and two straight losses to Andrey Rublev and Ugo Humbert, with match times of 76–95–85 minutes respectively. Shapovalov likewise has one win (Alejandro Davidovich Fokina) and two defeats, to Ben Shelton in a 156-minute tussle and Pablo Carreño Busta in 77 minutes. Those patterns suggest both can produce high-quality points but also have been vulnerable in recent outings.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.6 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Stefanos Tsitsipas - Denis Shapovalov) +0.6 Most likely spread: 0 (even number of games won)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for the match is relatively high for a hard-court encounter: the model’s predicted aces total is 21.23. Given hard courts produce a balanced but consistent bounce, that tally reflects Shapovalov’s powerful serving profile; his higher serve rating should lift the ace count. The double faults prediction is modest, with expected double faults around 4.86 — a level consistent with aggressive serving on hard courts.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 21.2 Most likely: 21 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.9 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Shapovalov’s superior serve and return indices, plus a stronger Elo and form reading, give him the edge in this first-round meeting. The key factor to watch is whether Tsitsipas can neutralize Shapovalov’s serve and force return-dictated rallies; if not, the match will likely tilt toward the Canadian.

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