Roland Garros France Clay Grand Slam Round of 128

Eliot Spizzirri vs Frances Tiafoe: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Eliot Spizzirri

Rank: #92
28%
VS

Frances Tiafoe

Rank: #21
72%
Expected Total Games: 40.1
Predicted Winner: Frances Tiafoe

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Ranking Trends

Eliot Spizzirri

  • Current #92 2026-05-18
  • 3 mo ago #67 2026-02-23
  • 6 mo ago #90 2025-11-24
  • 9 mo ago #127 2025-08-25
  • 12 mo ago #116 2025-05-26

Frances Tiafoe

  • Current #21 2026-05-18
  • 3 mo ago #28 2026-02-23
  • 6 mo ago #30 2025-11-24
  • 9 mo ago #17 2025-08-25
  • 12 mo ago #16 2025-05-26

Player Metrics

Eliot Spizzirri

Form Index: 35.0
ELO Rating: 1673.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1753.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 26.8
Clay: 11.2
Grass: 11.6
Serve Rating: 94.4
Return Rating: 91.2

Frances Tiafoe

Form Index: 39.6
ELO Rating: 1772.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1825.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 38.1
Clay: 26.0
Grass: 15.9
Serve Rating: 94.7
Return Rating: 86.7

Recent Matches

Eliot Spizzirri
❌ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

Frances Tiafoe
❌ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli (0-2) clay Hamburg 113 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Diego Dedura (2-0) clay Hamburg 94 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Andrea Pellegrino (0-2) clay Rome 116 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Ignacio Buse (2-1) clay Rome 163 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Tommy Paul (1-2) clay Houston 165 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Eliot Spizzirri
vs
0
Frances Tiafoe
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Roland Garros, Paris — round of 128 on clay sees Eliot Spizzirri face Frances Tiafoe in a matchup that pits a rising American challenger against a more established top-25 player. The model favors Tiafoe to advance, with a 72.27% probability of victory to Spizzirri’s 27.73%, and an expected total of about 40.07 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Spizzirri arrives ranked 92 with an Elo of 1673.4 and a form index of 34.95. His mean serve (94.42) and mean return (91.19) indices suggest a well-rounded baseline game, but his surface strength index on clay is modest at 11.20. He has no accumulated fatigue in this tournament. Tiafoe, ranked 21 with an Elo of 1772.4 and a slightly higher form index (39.64), shows better clay credentials with a surface strength index of 26.04. His mean serve index (94.73) is almost identical to Spizzirri’s, and his mean return index (86.72) is a touch lower than Spizzirri’s, with no tournament fatigue reported. Recent form is mixed for both. Spizzirri’s last three matches came on hard courts: a straight-sets win over James Duckworth and two three-set matches, including losses to Jannik Sinner and Jack Pinnington Jones — matches that ranged from 79 to 174 minutes, indicating his ability to stretch out rallies. Tiafoe’s recent clay outings include a win over Diego Dedura in Hamburg but defeats to Camilo Ugo Carabelli and Andrea Pellegrino; his match durations on clay sit around the 94–116 minute range, showing he’s had substantive, if inconsistent, preparation on the surface.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 40.1 Most likely outcome: 40 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Eliot Spizzirri - Frances Tiafoe) -2.0 Most likely spread: -3 (Frances Tiafoe wins 3 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction sits at an expected 14.97 for the match while the expected double faults are 6.14. On clay, predicted aces tend to be lower because the slower surface and higher bounce give returners more time, and expected double faults can creep up as longer rallies and physical strain set in. Neither player holds a significantly superior serve rating, so the predicted aces split will likely be balanced rather than dominated by one server; double faults prediction reflects moderate risk under clay conditions.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 15.0 Most likely: 14 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 6.1 Most likely: 6 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

45.1% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO5

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Eliot Spizzirri's perspective)

0-3 Most likely set score (44.8%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Tiafoe’s higher ranking, stronger Elo and clearer clay edge explain the forecasted advantage, while Spizzirri’s high return index and solid serve make this far from a one-sided affair. The key factor to watch is whether Spizzirri can convert his return strength into breaks early — if he does, the match could tighten; if not, Tiafoe’s combination of power and clay comfort should carry him through.

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