Ethan Quinn vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

The model's edge for Davidovich Fokina comes mainly from surface fit and recent results at this level: his stronger grass profile (+5.8 points toward him) and superior recent record by level (+5.6) tilt the prediction in his favor. Davidovich Fokina sits 22 in the rankings with an Elo of 1724.1 and a surface strength index of 30.42; he has played 281 minutes in Mallorca. Quinn, ranked 66 with an Elo of 1618.1 and a surface index of 18.88, arrives more fatigued after 390 minutes on court. Overall strength also favors Davidovich Fokina (a further +4.0), while Quinn gains modest support from recent form and age (the model gives Quinn +5.4 for recent form and +2.1 for age). Serve and return metrics are close: Quinn’s mean serve index is 96.85 versus Davidovich Fokina’s 95.98 — not a meaningful gap — and Quinn’s mean return index (92.42) is slightly higher than Davidovich Fokina’s (88.48). Both players have been excellent at Mallorca: Quinn has three straight wins (including two long matches of 127 and 128 minutes plus a quick 56-minute win), while Davidovich Fokina also won three matches (including a notable straight-sets win over Grigor Dimitrov and a 120-minute semi).