Roland Garros France Clay Grand Slam Round of 128

Ethan Quinn vs Francisco Comesana: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Ethan Quinn

Rank: #49
50%
VS

Francisco Comesana

Rank: #114
50%
Expected Total Games: 44.2
Predicted Winner: Francisco Comesana

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Player Metrics

Ethan Quinn

Form Index: 24.2
ELO Rating: 1550.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1592.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 25.8
Clay: 17.8
Grass: 10.7
Serve Rating: 95.0
Return Rating: 90.1

Francisco Comesana

Form Index: 41.5
ELO Rating: 1572.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1561.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 16.9
Clay: 17.2
Grass: 8.1
Serve Rating: 95.3
Return Rating: 87.6

Recent Matches

Ethan Quinn

Francisco Comesana

  • Last Match: vs Jaume Munar (0-2) clay Geneva 94 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Valentin Royer (2-1) clay Geneva 122 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Max Hans Rehberg (2-0) clay Geneva 65 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Henry Bernet (2-0) clay Geneva 68 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Jan-Lennard Struff (0-2) clay Rome 81 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Ethan Quinn
vs
1
Francisco Comesana
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 1
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Roland Garros Round of 128 in Paris on clay sets up a tight clash between Ethan Quinn and Francisco Comesana. The model gives Comesana the narrow edge: Francisco Comesana 50.26% to Ethan Quinn 49.74%, with a predicted total of about 44.24 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Quinn arrives as the higher-ranked player (No. 49) but with an Elo of 1550.25, while Comesana sits at No. 114 with a slightly higher Elo of 1572.70. Form favors Comesana (form index 41.48) over Quinn (24.23), and both show low surface strength indices on clay (Quinn 17.83, Comesana 17.19), indicating neither has demonstrated standout clay-court mastery in the underlying metrics. Fatigue is neutral for both (0 minutes on court in this event). Serve and return profiles are comparable: mean serve indices are almost identical (Quinn 95.03, Comesana 95.32) and return indices are close enough not to trigger a marked-difference note. Recent form tells a clearer story: Quinn is on a three-match losing streak on clay, with straight-set losses to Fabian Marozsan and Tommy Paul and a 1-2 defeat to Pablo Llamas Ruiz, including a long 150-minute encounter in Rome. Comesana has recorded two wins in his last three clay matches (including a 2-0 and a 2-1 in Geneva) before a 0-2 defeat to Jaume Munar in his most recent outing. Those recent results help explain the razor-thin probability split and suggest Comesana carries more recent momentum into Paris.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 44.2 Most likely outcome: 44 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Probability distribution chart for total games in Ethan Quinn versus Francisco Comesana. The X-axis shows possible total games values and the Y-axis shows the predicted probability percentage for each outcome.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total games in Ethan Quinn versus Francisco Comesana. The curve rises from 0% to 100%, showing the cumulative probability for each games total threshold.

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Ethan Quinn - Francisco Comesana) -0.2 Most likely spread: -1 (Francisco Comesana wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Probability distribution chart for games spread in Ethan Quinn versus Francisco Comesana. Positive values indicate Ethan Quinn winning more games, negative values indicate Francisco Comesana winning more games.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for games spread in Ethan Quinn versus Francisco Comesana. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each spread threshold.

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction sits at about 16.35 total (predicted aces) and expected double faults are 9.18 for the match. On clay, the slower surface typically suppresses ace counts and lengthens rallies, which aligns with the modest aces prediction; the surface also makes expected double faults more likely as fatigue sets in over long points. Since neither player has a markedly higher serve rating, no single server is expected to dominate the ace count.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 16.4 Most likely: 16 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 9.2 Most likely: 9 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Probability distribution chart for total aces in Ethan Quinn versus Francisco Comesana. Higher ace counts are more likely on faster surfaces like grass.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total aces in Ethan Quinn versus Francisco Comesana. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each aces threshold.

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Probability distribution chart for double faults in Ethan Quinn versus Francisco Comesana. Clay surface matches tend to produce more double faults due to fatigue in longer rallies.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for double faults in Ethan Quinn versus Francisco Comesana. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each double faults threshold.

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

49.0% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO5

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Ethan Quinn's perspective)

0-3 Most likely set score (23.9%)
Probability distribution of the final set score from Ethan Quinn's perspective. Format: BO5.

Final Prediction

Comesana’s slightly better form and marginally stronger Elo give him the edge in an extremely close matchup. The key factor to watch will be who seizes early break opportunities—on clay, the ability to convert return chances amid long rallies will likely decide a tight, physically demanding encounter.

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