Winston Salem NC, U.S.A. Hard Atp 250 Round of 16

Martin Damm vs Fabian Marozsan: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Martin Damm

Rank: #94
45%
VS

Fabian Marozsan

Rank: #63
55%
Expected Total Games: 23.7
Predicted Winner: Fabian Marozsan

Why the Model Favors Fabian Marozsan

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Recent form +5.9 Fabian Marozsan
Serve & return game +2.9 Martin Damm
Overall strength +2.9 Fabian Marozsan
Age +1.9 Martin Damm
Recent record by level +1.1 Fabian Marozsan

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 55% for Fabian Marozsan. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Martin Damm

  • Current #94 2026-08-10
  • 3 mo ago #116 2026-05-25
  • 6 mo ago #128 2026-02-23
  • 9 mo ago #176 2025-11-24
  • 12 mo ago #431 2025-08-25

Fabian Marozsan

  • Current #63 2026-08-10
  • 3 mo ago #54 2026-05-25
  • 6 mo ago #50 2026-02-23
  • 9 mo ago #51 2025-11-24
  • 12 mo ago #53 2025-08-25

Player Metrics

Martin Damm

Form Index: 43.9
ELO Rating: 1635.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1718.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 182.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 24.4
Clay: 15.3
Grass: 12.6
Serve Rating: 97.7
Return Rating: 86.7

Fabian Marozsan

Form Index: 35.5
ELO Rating: 1632.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1676.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 92.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 20.7
Clay: 17.5
Grass: 15.4
Serve Rating: 96.1
Return Rating: 85.8

Recent Matches

Martin Damm
✅ ✅ ❌ ❌ ✅

Fabian Marozsan
✅ ❌ ❌ ✅ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Martin Damm
vs
0
Fabian Marozsan
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Winston Salem, North Carolina. Round of 16 on hard court at an ATP 250 level. The model gives the edge to Fabian Marozsan, 55.10 percent to win, versus a 44.90 percent chance for Martin Damm. The match is expected to be relatively short by games, with an estimated 23.71 total games.

Match Analysis

The model’s edge for Marozsan comes mainly from recent form and overall strength. Marozsan arrives with a confidence-boosting straight sets win over Miomir Kecmanovic in the last round and lower cumulative fatigue (92 minutes on court this week) which the model counts in his favor. His higher ranking at 63 versus Damm’s 94 also contributes to the overall strength lift, even though their Elo ratings are nearly identical (Marozsan 1631.97, Damm 1635.46). Recent record by level also nudges the prediction toward Marozsan. Serve and return traits tilt slightly toward Damm in the model, reflecting his strong mean serve and return indices. Damm posts a mean serve index of 97.72 and a mean return index of 86.68. Marozsan’s serve and return indices are close at 96.13 and 85.84. Fatigue is a clear differentiator with Damm carrying 182 minutes this tournament versus Marozsan’s 92. Surface strength indices are modest for both players on hard court, 24.44 for Damm and 20.69 for Marozsan, suggesting neither has a major surface-specific edge. Recent match form shows Damm with two solid wins here over Medvedev and Shelbayh after a loss in Cincinnati. Marozsan has one strong win in Winston Salem and two earlier defeats in bigger events.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.7 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Martin Damm - Fabian Marozsan) -0.6 Most likely spread: -1 (Fabian Marozsan wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Aces prediction and predicted aces favor Damm. The match total is expected at 15.88 aces, split roughly 10.78 for Damm and 5.95 for Marozsan. The expected double faults total is 5.77, with 3.43 for Damm and 2.35 for Marozsan. On a medium-paced hard court, these predicted aces are consistent with a match that rewards a big serve while still allowing returns to matter.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 15.9 Most likely: 14 aces Per player: Martin Damm 10.8 + Fabian Marozsan 6.0
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.8 Most likely: 4 double faults Per player: Martin Damm 3.4 + Fabian Marozsan 2.4

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Martin Damm

Expected 10.8 aces

Fabian Marozsan

Expected 6.0 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Martin Damm

Expected 3.4 double faults

Fabian Marozsan

Expected 2.4 double faults

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

47.4% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Martin Damm's perspective)

0-2 Most likely set score (33.2%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Marozsan’s recent form is the top factor driving the projected upset. Watch fatigue and early break points as the match unfolds. If Damm’s serve holds up under pressure he can force a tight contest, but Marozsan’s fresher legs and recent win pattern give him the marginal edge.

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