Indian Wells CA, U.S.A. Hard Masters 1000 Round of 128

Fabian Marozsan vs Roberto Bautista Agut: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Fabian Marozsan

Rank: #50
66%
VS

Roberto Bautista Agut

Rank: #85
34%
Expected Total Games: 23.2
Predicted Winner: Fabian Marozsan

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Player Metrics

Fabian Marozsan

Form Index: 36.6
ELO Rating: 1175.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1611.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 8.2
Clay: 9.1
Grass: 8.1
Serve Rating: 77.4
Return Rating: 49.7

Roberto Bautista Agut

Form Index: 21.0
ELO Rating: 589.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1597.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 6.1
Clay: 7.4
Grass: 8.0
Serve Rating: 97.6
Return Rating: 90.2

Recent Matches

Fabian Marozsan

Roberto Bautista Agut

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Fabian Marozsan
vs
1
Roberto Bautista Agut
Hard
0 - 1
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

At Indian Wells in California, the 2026 masters_1000 opening round on hard courts pits rising Fabian Marozsan against veteran Roberto Bautista Agut. The model favors Marozsan, projecting him to win with a 65.71% probability to Bautista Agut’s 34.29%, and expects a relatively short match of about 23.22 total games.

Match Analysis

Marozsan arrives as the higher-ranked player (No. 50) with a substantially stronger Elo (1,175.59) and a cleaner recent form index (36.58) than Bautista Agut (rank 85, Elo 589.88, form 21.03). Both players show no tournament fatigue. Marozsan’s surface strength index (8.25) is modestly higher than Bautista Agut’s (6.11). On serve and return metrics there are large gaps: Bautista Agut’s mean serve index (97.59) tops Marozsan’s (77.37) by more than 20 points, and his mean return index (90.25) similarly outpaces Marozsan’s (49.66) by over 40 points — a striking statistical contrast for a hard-court matchup. Looking at recent results, Marozsan has one win (Ugo Humbert in Doha) and two defeats (Andrey Rublev in Doha and Arthur Rinderknech in Dubai), with matches largely on hard courts and mixed durations. Bautista Agut’s last three show one victory (Christopher O’Connell in Montpellier) and two losses (to Martin Damm in Montpellier and Cameron Norrie in Rotterdam). Both players’ recent form has been inconsistent, but Marozsan’s higher Elo and ranking reflect stronger underlying performance in the metrics provided.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.2 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Probability distribution chart for total games in Fabian Marozsan versus Roberto Bautista Agut. The X-axis shows possible total games values and the Y-axis shows the predicted probability percentage for each outcome.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total games in Fabian Marozsan versus Roberto Bautista Agut. The curve rises from 0% to 100%, showing the cumulative probability for each games total threshold.

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Fabian Marozsan - Roberto Bautista Agut) +0.7 Most likely spread: 0 (even number of games won)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Probability distribution chart for games spread in Fabian Marozsan versus Roberto Bautista Agut. Positive values indicate Fabian Marozsan winning more games, negative values indicate Roberto Bautista Agut winning more games.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for games spread in Fabian Marozsan versus Roberto Bautista Agut. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each spread threshold.

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for the match is fairly high: the model’s predicted aces total is 19.38, reflecting Bautista Agut’s very high serve index likely driving many free points. The expected double faults are 5.72, a modest figure consistent with hard courts’ medium pace. Given the surface and Bautista Agut’s serve rating, the predicted aces should be concentrated more on his service games.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 19.4 Most likely: 19 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 5.7 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Probability distribution chart for total aces in Fabian Marozsan versus Roberto Bautista Agut. Higher ace counts are more likely on faster surfaces like grass.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total aces in Fabian Marozsan versus Roberto Bautista Agut. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each aces threshold.

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Probability distribution chart for double faults in Fabian Marozsan versus Roberto Bautista Agut. Clay surface matches tend to produce more double faults due to fatigue in longer rallies.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for double faults in Fabian Marozsan versus Roberto Bautista Agut. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each double faults threshold.

Final Prediction

Marozsan’s edge comes from superior Elo, higher ranking and the slightly better form and surface strength shown in the data, which outweigh Bautista Agut’s standout serve and return indices in the model’s forecast. Watch the serve-vs-return matchup closely: if Bautista Agut converts his serve power into aces and holds, he can shorten the match; if Marozsan sustains baseline consistency and breaks through early, the statistics favor him to close it out.

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