Rome Italy Clay Masters 1000 Round of 128

Fabian Marozsan vs Vit Kopriva: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Fabian Marozsan

Rank: #49
62%
VS

Vit Kopriva

Rank: #55
38%
Expected Total Games: 26.3
Predicted Winner: Fabian Marozsan

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Player Metrics

Fabian Marozsan

Form Index: 36.2
ELO Rating: 1620.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1673.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 23.7
Clay: 21.8
Grass: 10.8
Serve Rating: 96.3
Return Rating: 91.0

Vit Kopriva

Form Index: 45.0
ELO Rating: 1671.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1705.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 15.8
Clay: 24.2
Grass: 5.9
Serve Rating: 94.4
Return Rating: 88.7

Recent Matches

Fabian Marozsan

Vit Kopriva

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Fabian Marozsan
vs
0
Vit Kopriva
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Rome, Italy — round of 128 on clay at a masters_1000 event sets the stage for Fabian Marozsan vs Vit Kopriva. The model leans to Marozsan as the likely winner, projecting a 61.83% probability for Marozsan versus 38.17% for Kopriva, with an expected total of about 26.31 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Marozsan comes in as the higher-ranked player (No. 49) with an Elo of 1620.18, a form index of 36.20 and no accumulated fatigue from the event. His surface strength index on clay is 21.79, but he posts very strong proprietary metrics for both serving (mean serve index 96.29) and returning (mean return index 91.02), suggesting a well-rounded game on paper. Kopriva, ranked 55 with a higher Elo (1671.51) and a stronger recent form index (44.96), also arrives fresh (fatigue 0.0). His surface strength index is 24.19 and his serve/return indices (serve 94.38, return 88.72) are close to Marozsan’s, indicating a tight matchup rather than a one-sided clash. Looking at recent results, Marozsan split his last three clay outings: a convincing win over Ethan Quinn in Madrid followed by two defeats to high-level opponents (Denis Shapovalov in Munich and Daniil Medvedev in Madrid, the latter a long 129-minute match where he still took a set). Kopriva’s last trio shows momentum from Madrid with wins over Andrey Rublev and Arthur Rinderknech before a straight-sets loss to Rafael Jodar. Both players have shown the ability to beat top opposition recently, but Marozsan’s balanced serve-return profile gives him the modeled edge.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 26.3 Most likely outcome: 26 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Probability distribution chart for total games in Fabian Marozsan versus Vit Kopriva. The X-axis shows possible total games values and the Y-axis shows the predicted probability percentage for each outcome.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total games in Fabian Marozsan versus Vit Kopriva. The curve rises from 0% to 100%, showing the cumulative probability for each games total threshold.

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Fabian Marozsan - Vit Kopriva) +0.1 Most likely spread: 0 (even number of games won)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Probability distribution chart for games spread in Fabian Marozsan versus Vit Kopriva. Positive values indicate Fabian Marozsan winning more games, negative values indicate Vit Kopriva winning more games.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for games spread in Fabian Marozsan versus Vit Kopriva. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each spread threshold.

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction sits at 12.94 for the match while the predicted double faults total about 3.88. On clay, slower speed and higher bounce typically reduce ace opportunities and can increase unforced service errors as rallies lengthen; that translates to the modest aces prediction and the expected double faults figure. Neither player posts a dramatically superior serve rating, so the predicted aces reflect two competent servers rather than a single big-server dominance.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 12.9 Most likely: 12 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 3.9 Most likely: 3 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Probability distribution chart for total aces in Fabian Marozsan versus Vit Kopriva. Higher ace counts are more likely on faster surfaces like grass.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total aces in Fabian Marozsan versus Vit Kopriva. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each aces threshold.

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Probability distribution chart for double faults in Fabian Marozsan versus Vit Kopriva. Clay surface matches tend to produce more double faults due to fatigue in longer rallies.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for double faults in Fabian Marozsan versus Vit Kopriva. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each double faults threshold.

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

34.2% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Fabian Marozsan's perspective)

2-0 Most likely set score (36.9%)
Probability distribution of the final set score from Fabian Marozsan's perspective. Format: BO3.

Final Prediction

Marozsan’s slightly better combined serving and returning metrics and higher tour ranking underpin the projected 61.8% chance of victory. Watch the early breaks and first-serve percentages—on slow clay, the player who converts initial break chances and limits second-serve pressure should decide the match.

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