Hamburg Germany Clay Atp 500 Quarterfinals

Alexandre Muller vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Prediction

Alexandre Muller

Rank: #39
45%
VS

Felix Auger-Aliassime

Rank: #27
55%
Predicted Games Played: 23.0
Predicted Winner: Felix Auger-Aliassime

Ranking Trends

Alexandre Muller

  • Current Rank: #39 (2025-05-05)
  • 3 Months Ago: #60 (2025-02-17)
  • 6 Months Ago: #68 (2024-11-18)
  • 9 Months Ago: #76 (2024-08-19)
  • 12 Months Ago: #90 (2024-05-20)

Felix Auger-Aliassime

  • Current Rank: #27 (2025-05-05)
  • 3 Months Ago: #23 (2025-02-17)
  • 6 Months Ago: #29 (2024-11-18)
  • 9 Months Ago: #19 (2024-08-19)
  • 12 Months Ago: #21 (2024-05-20)

Player Metrics

Alexandre Muller

Form Index: 56.6
ELO Rating: 1399.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1624.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 274.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 8.4
Clay: 11.7
Grass: 8.8
Serve Rating: 96.7
Return Rating: 88.8

Felix Auger-Aliassime

Form Index: 47.1
ELO Rating: 1453.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1663.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 152.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 12.1
Clay: 13.3
Grass: 12.5
Serve Rating: 96.4
Return Rating: 85.6

Recent Matches

Alexandre Muller
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Alexander Zverev (2-1) clay Hamburg 160 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Elias Ymer (2-0) clay Hamburg 114 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Stefanos Tsitsipas (0-2) clay Rome 91 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Jiri Lehecka (2-1) clay Rome 156 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Frances Tiafoe (0-2) clay Madrid 78 min

Felix Auger-Aliassime
✅ ✅ ❌ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard (2-0) clay Hamburg 73 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Daniel Altmaier (2-0) clay Hamburg 79 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo (0-2) clay Madrid 113 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Mariano Navone (1-2) clay Munich 182 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Daniel Altmaier (0-2) clay Monte Carlo 119 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

1
Alexandre Muller
vs
0
Felix Auger-Aliassime
Hard
1 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the quarterfinals of the Hamburg tournament, held on clay, Alexandre Muller is set to face Felix Auger-Aliassime. The prediction favors Auger-Aliassime with a 55.12% probability of winning, while Muller has a 44.88% chance. The expected total number of games in this match is 23.0.

Match Analysis

Felix Auger-Aliassime currently holds a rank of 27, with a slightly higher Elo rating of 1453.72 compared to Alexandre Muller's 1399.46. Despite his lower form index of 47.11, Auger-Aliassime's cumulative fatigue of 152 minutes is significantly less than Muller's 274 minutes, which could affect Muller's performance. On the surface, Auger-Aliassime has a marginally stronger surface strength index of 13.27 compared to Muller's 11.72. Notably, both players have similar mean serve indices—Muller at 96.67 and Auger-Aliassime at 96.38—but Auger-Aliassime's return index of 85.63 is lower than Muller's 88.81, which indicates that Muller might have an edge in returning serves. Analyzing their recent performances, Muller won his last match against Alexander Zverev after a hard-fought battle lasting 160 minutes, showcasing resilience. He also won against Elias Ymer in straight sets but struggled against Stefanos Tsitsipas in his previous outing in Rome. In contrast, Auger-Aliassime has been on a roll in Hamburg, winning his last two matches comfortably without dropping a set, demonstrating strong form and confidence heading into this quarterfinal.

Final Prediction

Felix Auger-Aliassime has an edge primarily due to his lower fatigue levels and recent dominant performances on clay in the tournament. A key factor to watch will be Muller’s ability to capitalize on his stronger return game against Auger-Aliassime’s serve, as this could significantly influence the match dynamics.