Roland Garros France Clay Grand Slam Round of 128

Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Daniel Altmaier: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Felix Auger-Aliassime

Rank: #5
69%
VS

Daniel Altmaier

Rank: #65
31%
Expected Total Games: 40.1
Predicted Winner: Felix Auger-Aliassime

Also available in Claude. Query these predictions in plain language — our native connector lets Claude call our models on demand, no code.

Set it up

Player Metrics

Felix Auger-Aliassime

Form Index: 32.5
ELO Rating: 1755.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1884.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 39.6
Clay: 26.7
Grass: 30.4
Serve Rating: 96.8
Return Rating: 89.4

Daniel Altmaier

Form Index: 35.6
ELO Rating: 1550.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1542.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 12.6
Clay: 21.2
Grass: 11.2
Serve Rating: 95.4
Return Rating: 87.3

Recent Matches

Felix Auger-Aliassime

  • Last Match: vs Aleksandar Kovacevic (1-2) clay Hamburg 142 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Vit Kopriva (2-0) clay Hamburg 85 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Mariano Navone (0-2) clay Rome 173 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Alexander Blockx (0-2) clay Madrid 93 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Vilius Gaubas (2-0) clay Madrid 81 min

Daniel Altmaier

  • Last Match: vs Tommy Paul (0-2) clay Hamburg 98 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Ben Shelton (2-1) clay Hamburg 170 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Rinky Hijikata (2-0) clay Hamburg 100 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Alexander Zverev (0-2) clay Rome 104 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Zhizhen Zhang (2-1) clay Rome 142 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

2
Felix Auger-Aliassime
vs
1
Daniel Altmaier
Hard
1 - 0
Clay
1 - 1
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Roland Garros in Paris opens with a clay-court clash in the round of 128 between Felix Auger-Aliassime and Daniel Altmaier. The model favors Auger-Aliassime as the likeliest winner (69.25% vs 30.75%) with a predicted total of about 40.1 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Felix Auger-Aliassime arrives ranked 5 with an Elo of 1755.64, a form index of 32.48 and zero cumulative fatigue from this event. His surface strength index on clay sits at 26.67; his mean serve and return indices are both elite (96.84 serve, 89.40 return). Daniel Altmaier is ranked 65 with an Elo of 1550.48, a slightly stronger recent form index (35.58) but the same zero fatigue. Altmaier’s clay surface strength index is 21.24 and his serve/return indices are strong as well (95.35 serve, 87.33 return). The two players’ serving and returning ratings are close enough that neither has a clear raw edge on those metrics. Recent results show mixed patterns. Auger-Aliassime has three clay outings of note: a straight-set win over Vit Kopriva sandwiched between losses to Mariano Navone (Rome) and Aleksandar Kovacevic (Hamburg). That sequence suggests flashes of dominance offset by inconsistency in best-of-three clay matches. Altmaier’s last three were all in Hamburg, where he beat Rinky Hijikata and Ben Shelton before falling to Tommy Paul; two wins and a loss signal resilience in long matches but also a defeat to a higher-caliber opponent.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 40.1 Most likely outcome: 40 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Probability distribution chart for total games in Felix Auger-Aliassime versus Daniel Altmaier. The X-axis shows possible total games values and the Y-axis shows the predicted probability percentage for each outcome.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total games in Felix Auger-Aliassime versus Daniel Altmaier. The curve rises from 0% to 100%, showing the cumulative probability for each games total threshold.

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Felix Auger-Aliassime - Daniel Altmaier) +2.3 Most likely spread: +2 (Felix Auger-Aliassime wins 2 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Probability distribution chart for games spread in Felix Auger-Aliassime versus Daniel Altmaier. Positive values indicate Felix Auger-Aliassime winning more games, negative values indicate Daniel Altmaier winning more games.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for games spread in Felix Auger-Aliassime versus Daniel Altmaier. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each spread threshold.

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for the match is about 15.6 total with a predicted double faults figure near 7.55. On clay, expected aces are suppressed by the slower, high-bounce surface while expected double faults can climb in extended rallies and longer matches. Neither player has a dramatically superior serve index, so the predicted aces reflect two powerful but not overpowering servers on a slow surface.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 15.6 Most likely: 15 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 7.5 Most likely: 7 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Probability distribution chart for total aces in Felix Auger-Aliassime versus Daniel Altmaier. Higher ace counts are more likely on faster surfaces like grass.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total aces in Felix Auger-Aliassime versus Daniel Altmaier. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each aces threshold.

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Probability distribution chart for double faults in Felix Auger-Aliassime versus Daniel Altmaier. Clay surface matches tend to produce more double faults due to fatigue in longer rallies.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for double faults in Felix Auger-Aliassime versus Daniel Altmaier. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each double faults threshold.

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

48.5% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO5

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Felix Auger-Aliassime's perspective)

3-0 Most likely set score (37.0%)
Probability distribution of the final set score from Felix Auger-Aliassime's perspective. Format: BO5.

Final Prediction

Auger-Aliassime’s higher rank and Elo provide the primary edge despite recent inconsistency; his top-tier serve and return indices point to the ability to control pivotal games. Watch his early service games and break-point conversion as the decisive factor in whether this projected three-set affair breaks towards the favorite.

Get Daily Tennis Predictions

Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven tennis predictions directly on your phone.

Join Our Telegram Channel