Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Karen Khachanov: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

The model’s edge for Felix stems mainly from overall strength and surface fit. Overall strength contributes +3.8 percentage points toward Felix, reflected in his higher rank at 4 versus Khachanov at 49, and a superior Elo of 1897.96 against 1645.85. Surface fit adds another +3.5 points in Felix’s favor, supported by his surface strength index of 40.73 compared with Khachanov’s 19.54. Recent record by level also leans toward Felix, adding +3.1 points, consistent with a stronger form index of 65.83 versus 33.17. Serve and return metrics provide a counterweight. The explainability engine gives Khachanov a +2.5 point edge for serve and return game. Their mean serve indices are close, 97.79 for Felix and 96.22 for Khachanov, and mean return indices are 88.39 for Felix and 87.27 for Khachanov, which keeps the serving matchup finely balanced. The age factor adds +2.2 points toward Felix in the model’s output. Fatigue is even between them, with both logging 174 minutes on court in the tournament so far. Form over the last three matches shows Felix beating Rinky Hijikata at the Open and earlier wins and a loss in Cincinnati. Khachanov won his opening US Open match in straight sets, but his two prior results were losses in Cincinnati and Toronto. Those recent patterns help explain the model’s tilt toward Auger-Aliassime.