Miami FL, U.S.A. Hard Masters 1000 Round of 64

Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Marton Fucsovics: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Felix Auger-Aliassime

Rank: #8
64%
VS

Marton Fucsovics

Rank: #54
36%
Expected Total Games: 23.4
Predicted Winner: Felix Auger-Aliassime

Ranking Trends

Felix Auger-Aliassime

  • Current Rank: #8 (2026-03-16)
  • 3 Months Ago: #5 (2025-12-15)
  • 6 Months Ago: #13 (2025-09-15)
  • 9 Months Ago: #27 (2025-06-16)
  • 12 Months Ago: #19 (2025-03-17)

Marton Fucsovics

  • Current Rank: #54 (2026-03-16)
  • 3 Months Ago: #55 (2025-12-15)
  • 6 Months Ago: #58 (2025-09-15)
  • 9 Months Ago: #105 (2025-06-16)
  • 12 Months Ago: #90 (2025-03-17)

Player Metrics

Felix Auger-Aliassime

Form Index: 52.0
ELO Rating: 3700.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1700.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 24.8
Clay: 30.7
Grass: 31.6
Serve Rating: 84.8
Return Rating: 31.5

Marton Fucsovics

Form Index: 54.1
ELO Rating: 997.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1570.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 105.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 9.0
Clay: 7.5
Grass: 8.0
Serve Rating: 97.1
Return Rating: 91.3

Recent Matches

Felix Auger-Aliassime
❌ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Arthur Fils (0-2) hard Indian Wells 111 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Gabriel Diallo (2-1) hard Indian Wells 147 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Gael Monfils (2-1) hard Indian Wells 136 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Daniil Medvedev (0-2) hard Dubai 83 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Jiri Lehecka (2-0) hard Dubai 112 min

Marton Fucsovics
✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Christopher O'Connell (2-0) hard Miami 105 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Arthur Fils (0-2) hard Indian Wells 83 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Lorenzo Musetti (2-0) hard Indian Wells 88 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Christopher O'Connell (2-0) hard Indian Wells 90 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Karen Khachanov (1-2) hard Doha 121 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Felix Auger-Aliassime
vs
0
Marton Fucsovics
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

At the Miami Masters in Florida, hard courts set the scene for this Round of 64 clash between Felix Auger-Aliassime and Marton Fucsovics. The model favors Felix Auger-Aliassime to progress, with a 64.43% chance of victory against Fucsovics’s 35.57%, and a predicted total of about 23.42 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Felix arrives as the higher-ranked player (No. 8) with a very strong Elo (3700.59) and a solid form index (52.02). He shows no cumulative fatigue from the tournament so far and carries a surface strength index of 24.78 on hard courts. Marton is ranked 54 with a form index slightly higher (54.10) but a much lower Elo (997.25) and has logged 105 minutes on court this event, a notable fatigue factor. Felix’s serve profile (mean serve index 84.82) is excellent, but Fucsovics posts an even higher mean serve index (97.10) — a difference greater than five points. Conversely, the gap in mean return index is stark: Felix 31.47 vs Fucsovics 91.29, also well over five points. Recent results paint a mixed picture. Felix lost his most recent outing at Indian Wells to Arthur Fils after earlier wins over Gabriel Diallo and Gael Monfils, indicating form with occasional lapses. Fucsovics beat Christopher O’Connell in Miami most recently, following a win over Lorenzo Musetti and a loss to Arthur Fils at Indian Wells; he’s shown the ability to produce straight-set wins but comes into this match with more minutes logged.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.4 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this contest sits at roughly 15.91 total, and the expected double faults are about 5.94. On hard courts — a medium-paced, consistent-bounce surface — this predicted aces figure is in line with a match that favors both servers and returners. Given Fucsovics’s higher serve rating, he may drive a larger share of the predicted aces, while the expected double faults remain moderate.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 15.9 Most likely: 15 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.9 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Felix’s edge stems from his superior ranking, dominant Elo, fresher legs and a better hard-court surface profile. The key factor to watch is how Fucsovics’s elite return and big-serve numbers confront Felix’s powerful baseline game; that matchup will likely decide whether this stays on forecasted lines or becomes an upset.

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