Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Michael Zheng: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

The model’s edge for Felix comes mainly from overall strength — his ranking and Elo advantage — reinforced by recent match-level results and a stronger serve/return profile. Felix is world No. 4 with an Elo of 1850.1, while Zheng is No. 144 with an Elo of 1767.9, a gap that drives 12.8 percentage points of the prediction toward Felix. Recent-record-by-level and recent-form factors also favour Felix (8.3 and 7.5 pts respectively), despite Zheng’s hot run at this event. Serve and return characteristics further tilt the match. Felix’s mean serve index (97.99) is meaningfully higher than Zheng’s (91.79) — a difference greater than 5 points — and his mean return index (92.58) is also about 6 points higher than Zheng’s (86.62). Those serve & return advantages add about 7.5 points to Felix’s probability. Fatigue is another practical factor: Felix has logged 348 minutes at this tournament versus Zheng’s 870 minutes, which may blunt Zheng’s effectiveness as the match progresses. Both players have modest surface strength indexes on grass (Felix 31.01, Zheng 24.77), with Felix a bit better suited to this faster surface. In their last three matches Felix is 2-1, with straight-set wins in two Wimbledon rounds and a loss to Frances Tiafoe at Halle. Zheng is on a 3-0 run at Wimbledon, including wins over Cameron Norrie and Nicolas Mejia, but those matches have accumulated greater time on court.