Us Open NY, U.S.A. Hard Grand Slam Round of 128

Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Rinky Hijikata: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Felix Auger-Aliassime

Rank: #4
75%
VS

Rinky Hijikata

Rank: #85
25%
Expected Total Games: 39.9
Predicted Winner: Felix Auger-Aliassime

Why the Model Favors Felix Auger-Aliassime

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Recent record by level +7.9 Felix Auger-Aliassime
Overall strength +5.9 Felix Auger-Aliassime
Surface fit +5.1 Felix Auger-Aliassime
Recent form +3.6 Felix Auger-Aliassime
Serve & return game +1.2 Felix Auger-Aliassime

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 75% for Felix Auger-Aliassime. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Player Metrics

Felix Auger-Aliassime

Form Index: 46.5
ELO Rating: 1882.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1898.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 38.9
Clay: 32.8
Grass: 35.4
Serve Rating: 97.8
Return Rating: 88.4

Rinky Hijikata

Form Index: 40.0
ELO Rating: 1640.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1698.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 26.5
Clay: 7.4
Grass: 10.4
Serve Rating: 95.1
Return Rating: 87.0

Recent Matches

Felix Auger-Aliassime

Rinky Hijikata

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Felix Auger-Aliassime
vs
0
Rinky Hijikata
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Felix Auger-Aliassime faces Rinky Hijikata in the opening round of the 2026 US Open in New York, on hard courts in a grand slam setting. The model projects Auger-Aliassime to win with a 75.19% probability, against 24.81% for Hijikata, and forecasts about 39.9 total games in the match.

Match Analysis

The model's edge for Felix comes mainly from recent record by level, overall strength, and surface fit. Recent record by level added 7.9 percentage points to Felix, overall strength contributed 5.9 points, and surface fit added 5.1 points. Felix sits well above Hijikata in ranking and Elo, ranked 4 with an Elo of 1882.5 versus Hijikata at 85 and Elo 1640.3. Felix also posts a higher form index at 46.52 compared with Hijikata at 39.97. Both enter with zero cumulative fatigue from the tournament. Surface specific metrics favor Auger-Aliassime. His surface strength index is 38.88 versus Hijikata at 26.54, supporting the model weight toward Felix on hard courts. Serve and return profiles are broadly comparable. Felix’s mean serve index is 97.85 and Hijikata’s is 95.14, a small gap. Mean return indices are close as well with Felix at 88.38 and Hijikata at 86.96. Over their last three matches, Felix won two matches in Cincinnati before falling to Frances Tiafoe in the round of 16. Hijikata recorded two wins at Winston Salem followed by a loss to Benjamin Bonzi in his most recent outing.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 39.9 Most likely outcome: 38 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Probability distribution chart for total games in Felix Auger-Aliassime versus Rinky Hijikata. The X-axis shows possible total games values and the Y-axis shows the predicted probability percentage for each outcome.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total games in Felix Auger-Aliassime versus Rinky Hijikata. The curve rises from 0% to 100%, showing the cumulative probability for each games total threshold.

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Felix Auger-Aliassime - Rinky Hijikata) +3.2 Most likely spread: +3 (Felix Auger-Aliassime wins 3 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Probability distribution chart for games spread in Felix Auger-Aliassime versus Rinky Hijikata. Positive values indicate Felix Auger-Aliassime winning more games, negative values indicate Rinky Hijikata winning more games.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for games spread in Felix Auger-Aliassime versus Rinky Hijikata. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each spread threshold.

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction calls for about 19.2 total aces in the match, with predicted aces split of 12.81 for Felix and 6.73 for Hijikata. The double faults prediction is an expected double faults total of 8.61, split as 4.60 for Felix and 4.01 for Hijikata. Hard courts produce a moderate number of aces compared with grass or clay, which aligns with these projections. The per player ace projection quantifies the serve gap with Felix expected to log about 12.8 aces and Hijikata about 6.7 aces.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 19.2 Most likely: 17 aces Per player: Felix Auger-Aliassime 12.8 + Rinky Hijikata 6.7
Expected Total Double Faults 8.6 Most likely: 7 double faults Per player: Felix Auger-Aliassime 4.6 + Rinky Hijikata 4.0

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Probability distribution chart for total aces in Felix Auger-Aliassime versus Rinky Hijikata. Higher ace counts are more likely on faster surfaces like grass.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total aces in Felix Auger-Aliassime versus Rinky Hijikata. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each aces threshold.

🎯 Aces by Player

Felix Auger-Aliassime

Expected 12.8 aces

Probability distribution for the aces Felix Auger-Aliassime serves in this match.
Rinky Hijikata

Expected 6.7 aces

Probability distribution for the aces Rinky Hijikata serves in this match.

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Probability distribution chart for double faults in Felix Auger-Aliassime versus Rinky Hijikata. The chart shows the predicted probability for each double-fault count.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for double faults in Felix Auger-Aliassime versus Rinky Hijikata. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each double faults threshold.

Double Faults by Player

Felix Auger-Aliassime

Expected 4.6 double faults

Probability distribution for the double faults Felix Auger-Aliassime serves in this match.
Rinky Hijikata

Expected 4.0 double faults

Probability distribution for the double faults Rinky Hijikata serves in this match.

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

46.0% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO5

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Felix Auger-Aliassime's perspective)

3-0 Most likely set score (46.4%)
Probability distribution of the final set score from Felix Auger-Aliassime's perspective. Format: BO5.

Final Prediction

Felix’s advantage is driven most strongly by recent record by level and his superior overall strength on hard courts. Watch the early service holds and return aggression as the key factor that could confirm or narrow the projected margin.

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