Montpellier France Hard Atp 250 Semifinals

Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Titouan Droguet: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Felix Auger-Aliassime

Rank: #8
66%
VS

Titouan Droguet

Rank: #155
34%
Expected Total Games: 23.6
Predicted Winner: Felix Auger-Aliassime

Ranking Trends

Felix Auger-Aliassime

  • Current Rank: #8 (2026-01-19)
  • 3 Months Ago: #8 (2025-11-03)
  • 6 Months Ago: #28 (2025-08-04)
  • 9 Months Ago: #27 (2025-05-05)
  • 12 Months Ago: #23 (2025-02-03)

Titouan Droguet

  • Current Rank: #155 (2026-01-19)
  • 3 Months Ago: #150 (2025-11-03)
  • 6 Months Ago: #161 (2025-08-04)
  • 9 Months Ago: #206 (2025-05-05)
  • 12 Months Ago: #176 (2025-02-03)

Player Metrics

Felix Auger-Aliassime

Form Index: 49.6
ELO Rating: 4062.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1671.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 175.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 26.7
Clay: 30.0
Grass: 31.1
Serve Rating: 82.0
Return Rating: 38.1

Titouan Droguet

Form Index: 57.2
ELO Rating: 564.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1547.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 496.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 4.9
Clay: 4.7
Grass: 3.9
Serve Rating: 96.5
Return Rating: 90.1

Recent Matches

Felix Auger-Aliassime
✅ ✅ ❌ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Arthur Fils (2-0) hard Montpellier 68 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Stan Wawrinka (2-0) hard Montpellier 107 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Nuno Borges (1-2) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Jannik Sinner (0-2) hard Paris 112 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Alexander Bublik (2-0) hard Paris 96 min

Titouan Droguet
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Tallon Griekspoor (2-0) hard Montpellier 106 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Aleksandar Kovacevic (2-1) hard Montpellier 114 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Jan Choinski (2-0) hard Montpellier 84 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Ugo Blanchet (2-1) hard Montpellier 137 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Robin Bertrand (2-0) hard Montpellier 55 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Felix Auger-Aliassime
vs
0
Titouan Droguet
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

This semifinal in Montpellier (France) is on indoor hard courts at an ATP 250-level event. Felix Auger-Aliassime is the clear favorite: the model predicts him to win with a 66.41% probability versus 33.59% for Titouan Droguet, and the match is expected to contain about 23.59 total games.

Match Analysis

Felix comes in ranked 8 with an Elo of 4062 and a form index of 49.62. He has accumulated 175 minutes on court this week and posts a surface strength index of 26.72 and a mean serve index of 81.98. Droguet is ranked 155 with an Elo of 564.31 and a slightly higher form index of 57.21, but he carries heavier fatigue (496 minutes) and a low surface strength index of 4.86. The disparity in Elo and ranking favors Felix strongly, while Droguet’s deeper run this week shows momentum at the cost of court time. There is a notable difference in serving and returning profiles: Droguet’s mean serve index (96.49) is substantially higher than Felix’s (81.98), and his mean return index (90.14) is far above Felix’s (38.14). Over the last three matches, Felix has won two of three (including victories at this tournament over Stan Wawrinka and Arthur Fils) after a long Australian Open match loss, whereas Droguet has won three straight in Montpellier, beating Griekspoor, Kovacevic and Choinski. That recent winning streak gives Droguet confidence, but accumulated minutes suggest fatigue could be a factor.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.6 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for the encounter is about 10.57 total aces and the predicted aces split should skew toward Droguet given his markedly higher serve index. Expected double faults for the match are around 4.47. On hard courts — a medium-paced, consistent-bounce surface — these predicted aces and expected double faults are typical: hard courts reward both big servers and reliable returners, so Droguet’s serving strength may inflate the ace count while Felix’s return pressure could limit free points.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 10.6 Most likely: 10 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.5 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Felix’s higher rank and dominant Elo rating give him the edge despite Droguet’s hot form and elite serve metric. The key factor to watch is Droguet’s serve: if he can maintain serve efficiency without costly double faults, he can force tight sets; otherwise Felix’s overall quality should decide the match.

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