Flavio Cobolli vs Andrea Pellegrino: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Cobolli enters with the higher rank (No. 12), a superior Elo (1766.8 vs 1747.7) and zero minutes of fatigue accumulated in this tournament, which is notable on a physically demanding surface like clay. His proprietary form index (35.29) is modest relative to Pellegrino’s (74.71), but Cobolli’s surface strength index (30.80) and strong return index (92.34) suggest he can control baseline exchanges and pressure second serves. Recent results show a mixed run: one straight-sets win in Rome followed by two straight-set defeats in Hamburg and Rome, indicating some inconsistency. Pellegrino, ranked 126, arrives with much higher form and two marathon wins earlier at Roland Garros (both long matches of 174 minutes) that boosted confidence but also left him with 348 minutes of on-court fatigue — a clear concern for endurance over best-of-five clay battles. His surface strength index (27.67) and mean serve/return indices (serve 94.96, return 89.87) are comparable to Cobolli’s, though slightly lower on return. Recent form on clay is strong (consecutive wins at Roland Garros), but the accumulated minutes and longer match durations could blunt that momentum against a fresher, higher-ranked opponent.