Marseille France Hard Atp 250 Quarterfinals

Flavio Cobolli vs Brandon Nakashima Prediction

Flavio Cobolli

Rank: #6
36%
VS

Brandon Nakashima

Rank: #17
64%
Expected Total Games: 25.8
Predicted Winner: Brandon Nakashima

Why the Model Favors Brandon Nakashima

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Recent form +4.9 Brandon Nakashima
Recent record by level +4.8 Brandon Nakashima
Serve & return game +3.3 Brandon Nakashima
Overall record & opposition quality +1.6 Brandon Nakashima
Fatigue & recent workload +1.5 Flavio Cobolli

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 64% for Brandon Nakashima. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Flavio Cobolli

  • Current #6 2026-10-19
  • 3 mo ago #9 2026-07-20
  • 6 mo ago #13 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #22 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #22 2025-10-20

Brandon Nakashima

  • Current #17 2026-10-19
  • 3 mo ago #32 2026-07-20
  • 6 mo ago #32 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #30 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #32 2025-10-20

Player Metrics

Flavio Cobolli

Form Index: 40.1
ELO Rating: 1810.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1833.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 67.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 27.1
Clay: 37.7
Grass: 33.1
Serve Rating: 95.4
Return Rating: 88.4

Brandon Nakashima

Form Index: 44.9
ELO Rating: 1826.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1843.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 210.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 37.5
Clay: 19.4
Grass: 21.2
Serve Rating: 97.0
Return Rating: 86.0

Recent Matches

Flavio Cobolli
✅ ❌ ❌ ❌ ✅

Brandon Nakashima
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Flavio Cobolli
vs
1
Brandon Nakashima
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 1
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Brandon Nakashima is favored at 64%, with Flavio Cobolli given a 36% chance. The Quarterfinals in Marseille are projected to last 25.8 games.

Match Analysis

Nakashima has won both of his Marseille matches, including a straight-sets victory over Kyrian Jacquet. Cobolli also won his most recent match in straight sets, against Stan Wawrinka, but that followed losses to Adrian Mannarino and Roman Safiullin. Nakashima’s stronger serve and better recent run at this tournament support the forecast. Cobolli has the stronger return, while his 67 minutes on court are far below Nakashima’s 210, giving him a freshness advantage despite the recent-results gap.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 25.8 Most likely outcome: 25 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Flavio Cobolli - Brandon Nakashima) -2.2 Most likely spread: -3 (Brandon Nakashima wins 3 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Nakashima is projected for 9.6 aces and 1.8 double faults, while Cobolli is projected for 6.5 aces and 3.0 double faults. Nakashima’s stronger serving profile fits the larger ace estimate, while Cobolli’s higher projected double-fault count could make his service games less secure.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 15.3 Most likely: 13 aces Per player: Flavio Cobolli 6.5 + Brandon Nakashima 9.6
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.8 Most likely: 3 double faults Per player: Flavio Cobolli 3.0 + Brandon Nakashima 1.8

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Flavio Cobolli

Expected 6.5 aces

Brandon Nakashima

Expected 9.6 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Flavio Cobolli

Expected 3.0 double faults

Brandon Nakashima

Expected 1.8 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

43.6% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Flavio Cobolli's perspective)

0-2 Most likely set score (41.5%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Cobolli’s return is the main threat to the forecast: if he can consistently blunt Nakashima’s serve, his court-time advantage could become more important.

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