Marseille France Hard Atp 250 Semifinals

Flavio Cobolli vs Lorenzo Musetti Prediction

Flavio Cobolli

Rank: #6
41%
VS

Lorenzo Musetti

Rank: #26
59%
Expected Total Games: 22.9
Predicted Winner: Lorenzo Musetti

Why the Model Favors Lorenzo Musetti

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Serve & return game +3.8 Lorenzo Musetti
Recent record by level +3.7 Lorenzo Musetti
Head-to-head +2.8 Lorenzo Musetti
Fatigue & recent workload +0.6 Flavio Cobolli
Overall record & opposition quality +0.6 Flavio Cobolli

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 59% for Lorenzo Musetti. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Flavio Cobolli

  • Current #6 2026-10-19
  • 3 mo ago #9 2026-07-20
  • 6 mo ago #13 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #22 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #22 2025-10-20

Lorenzo Musetti

  • Current #26 2026-10-19
  • 3 mo ago #15 2026-07-20
  • 6 mo ago #9 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #5 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #8 2025-10-20

Player Metrics

Flavio Cobolli

Form Index: 45.3
ELO Rating: 1830.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1842.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 204.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 29.2
Clay: 37.7
Grass: 33.1
Serve Rating: 95.4
Return Rating: 88.4

Lorenzo Musetti

Form Index: 40.2
ELO Rating: 1805.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1877.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 402.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 32.3
Clay: 42.7
Grass: 31.9
Serve Rating: 96.3
Return Rating: 89.1

Recent Matches

Flavio Cobolli
✅ ✅ ❌ ❌ ❌

Lorenzo Musetti
✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Luca Van Assche (2-1) hard Marseille 213 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Moise Kouame (2-0) hard Marseille 110 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Matteo Arnaldi (2-0) hard Marseille 79 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Yi Zhou (1-2) hard Shanghai 148 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Dane Sweeny (1-3) hard Us Open 174 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Flavio Cobolli
vs
1
Lorenzo Musetti
Hard
0 - 1
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Musetti is favoured, with a 59% chance of winning to Cobolli’s 41%, and the match is projected to last 22.9 games. The Marseille Semifinals look finely balanced rather than one-sided.

Match Analysis

Musetti has a slight advantage on both serve and return, giving him a small edge in the exchanges around the service games. Neither player has a pronounced serving advantage, but Musetti’s marginally stronger return could help him put more pressure on Cobolli’s delivery. Musetti has won all three of his Marseille matches, including a three-set win over Luca Van Assche, while Cobolli has won twice here. The head-to-head factor also leans Musetti. Cobolli’s higher ranking and lighter workload are counterweights: he has spent 204 minutes on court this week, compared with Musetti’s 402.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 22.9 Most likely outcome: 22 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Flavio Cobolli - Lorenzo Musetti) -2.3 Most likely spread: -3 (Lorenzo Musetti wins 3 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Cobolli is projected to hit 5.2 aces and 2.6 double faults, while Musetti is projected for 4.8 aces and 2.0 double faults. Their serve profiles are close, so the forecast expects similar ace totals, with Cobolli producing slightly more double faults.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 9.8 Most likely: 8 aces Per player: Flavio Cobolli 5.2 + Lorenzo Musetti 4.8
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.5 Most likely: 3 double faults Per player: Flavio Cobolli 2.5 + Lorenzo Musetti 2.0

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Flavio Cobolli

Expected 5.2 aces

Lorenzo Musetti

Expected 4.8 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Flavio Cobolli

Expected 2.5 double faults

Lorenzo Musetti

Expected 2.0 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

42.7% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Flavio Cobolli's perspective)

0-2 Most likely set score (40.0%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Cobolli’s 204 fewer minutes on court and sixth-place ranking give him credible ways to upset the forecast. If he can use that workload advantage to put Musetti under pressure, the Italian’s slight return edge may count for less.

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