Umag
Croatia
Clay
Atp 250
Round of 16
Flavio Cobolli vs Roman Andres Burruchaga: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults
Flavio Cobolli
Rank: #10
65%
VS
Roman Andres Burruchaga
Rank: #67
35%
Expected Total Games:
23.0
Predicted Winner:
Flavio Cobolli
Why the Model Favors Flavio Cobolli
The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.
Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 65% for Flavio Cobolli. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network — not editorial opinion. How to read this →
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Set it upRanking Trends
Flavio Cobolli
- Current #10 2026-06-29
- 3 mo ago #16 2026-04-13
- 6 mo ago #22 2026-01-12
- 9 mo ago #22 2025-10-13
- 12 mo ago #19 2025-07-14
Roman Andres Burruchaga
- Current #67 2026-07-13
- 3 mo ago #61 2026-04-13
- 6 mo ago #103 2026-01-12
- 9 mo ago #131 2025-10-13
- 12 mo ago #136 2025-07-14
Player Metrics
Flavio Cobolli
Form Index:
53.7
ELO Rating:
1896.8
Glicko2 Rating:
1858.8
Current Fatigue (minutes):
0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard:
24.6
Clay:
39.9
Grass:
33.1
Serve Rating:
95.5
Return Rating:
92.7
Roman Andres Burruchaga
Form Index:
31.4
ELO Rating:
1570.1
Glicko2 Rating:
1628.3
Current Fatigue (minutes):
71.0
Surface Strength:
Hard:
9.8
Clay:
18.9
Grass:
7.4
Serve Rating:
94.4
Return Rating:
90.7
Recent Matches
Flavio Cobolli
- Last Match: vs Arthur Fery (0-3) grass Wimbledon 174 min
- 2nd Last Match: vs Alex de Minaur (3-0) grass Wimbledon 174 min
- 3rd Last Match: vs Karen Khachanov (3-2) grass Wimbledon 174 min
- 4th Last Match: vs James Duckworth (3-1) grass Wimbledon 174 min
- 5th Last Match: vs Mariano Navone (3-1) grass Wimbledon 174 min
Roman Andres Burruchaga
- Last Match: vs Marco Cecchinato (2-0) clay Umag 71 min
- 2nd Last Match: vs Alex de Minaur (0-3) grass Wimbledon 174 min
- 3rd Last Match: vs Arthur Fery (1-2) grass Eastbourne 137 min
- 4th Last Match: vs Felix Auger-Aliassime (1-3) clay Roland Garros 174 min
- 5th Last Match: vs Sebastian Baez (2-1) clay Roland Garros 174 min
Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)
0
Flavio Cobolli
vs
0
Roman Andres Burruchaga
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0
Key Prediction Insights
In Umag, Croatia, on clay and in the round of 16 of an atp_250 event, Flavio Cobolli is favored to progress. The model projects Cobolli to win with a 65.31% probability versus 34.69% for Roman Andres Burruchaga, and it expects roughly 23.02 total games in the match.
Match Analysis
The model’s edge for Cobolli stems primarily from overall strength and clay surface fit: those two factors each contribute +6.2 percentage points to his probability, with recent results at higher levels adding another +5.7 points. Cobolli’s rank (10), higher Elo (1896.8) and stronger form index (53.7) underpin that advantage; his surface strength index (39.9) is also noticeably better than Burruchaga’s (18.9). Cobolli arrives with no cumulative tournament fatigue, which should help on physically demanding slow courts.
Burruchaga earns a counterweight from the serve & return game factor, which pushes 5.7 points in his direction. Despite a comparable mean serve index (Cobolli 95.50 vs Burruchaga 94.36) and return indices that are close as well (92.71 vs 90.70), his in-tournament minutes (71) give Cobolli the freshness edge. Recent match form diverges: Cobolli won two tough matches at Wimbledon before a loss to Arthur Fery, while Burruchaga beat Marco Cecchinato in Umag but has two earlier losses on grass. Those results feed the model’s recent-record lift toward Cobolli (+3.3 from recent form).
Total Games Predictions
Expected Total Games in Match
23.0
Most likely outcome: 23 games
Total Games Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total games outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total games ≤ X
Games Spread Predictions
Expected Games Spread (Flavio Cobolli - Roman Andres Burruchaga)
+0.7
Most likely spread:
0 (even number of games won)
Games Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each games spread outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of spread ≤ X
Aces and Double Faults Predictions
The aces prediction is low: the predicted aces for the match sit at 4.9, consistent with clay’s tendency to reduce serve winners. The double faults prediction is higher, with expected double faults around 5.64; fatigue can increase miscues on clay, so Burruchaga’s 71 minutes in-court could push the expected double faults up. Serve ratings are comparable, so any uplift in the predicted aces will likely come from match context rather than a clear serving gap.
Expected Total Aces
4.9
Most likely: 4 aces
Expected Total Double Faults
5.6
Most likely: 5 double faults
Aces Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each ace count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of aces ≤ X
Double Faults Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each double fault count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of double faults ≤ X
Match Format Predictions
Tiebreak Likelihood
Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match
34.3%
Predicted:
No tiebreak
Exact Score Distribution BO3
Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Flavio Cobolli's perspective)
2-0
Most likely set score (39.8%)
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Download Probability Data
Full distributions as structured data (JSON or CSV)
Final Prediction
Cobolli’s clear advantage comes from overall strength and better surface fit, supported by higher rank, Elo and freshness. Watch how Burruchaga’s serve-and-return pressure manifests early—if it breaks Cobolli’s rhythm, it’s the most likely route to an upset.
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