Rome Italy Clay Masters 1000 Round of 64

Flavio Cobolli vs Terence Atmane: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Flavio Cobolli

Rank: #12
50%
VS

Terence Atmane

Rank: #51
50%
Expected Total Games: 24.9
Predicted Winner: Terence Atmane

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Ranking Trends

Flavio Cobolli

  • Current #12 2026-05-04
  • 3 mo ago #20 2026-02-02
  • 6 mo ago #22 2025-11-03
  • 9 mo ago #22 2025-08-04
  • 12 mo ago #34 2025-05-05

Terence Atmane

  • Current #51 2026-05-04
  • 3 mo ago #66 2026-02-02
  • 6 mo ago #66 2025-11-03
  • 9 mo ago #136 2025-08-04
  • 12 mo ago #119 2025-05-05

Player Metrics

Flavio Cobolli

Form Index: 45.6
ELO Rating: 1813.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1830.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 24.4
Clay: 34.7
Grass: 29.9
Serve Rating: 95.4
Return Rating: 92.2

Terence Atmane

Form Index: 62.5
ELO Rating: 1693.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1670.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 83.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 23.2
Clay: 17.4
Grass: 11.6
Serve Rating: 96.1
Return Rating: 88.0

Recent Matches

Flavio Cobolli
❌ ✅ ✅ ✅ ❌

Terence Atmane
✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

1
Flavio Cobolli
vs
1
Terence Atmane
Hard
1 - 1
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Rome, clay — round of 64 at a Masters 1000 event sets up an intriguing clash between No. 12 Flavio Cobolli and No. 51 Terence Atmane. The model gives Atmane a very slim edge: Terence Atmane 50.48% vs Flavio Cobolli 49.52%, with a projected total of about 24.85 games in the match.

Match Analysis

On paper Cobolli brings the higher ranking (12) and the superior Elo (1813.4) and displays a stronger surface strength index (34.69) than Atmane (17.35). Cobolli’s mean serve (95.44) and mean return (92.19) indices are both high, indicating an all-court baseline game that translates well onto clay. Atmane, ranked 51 with an Elo of 1693.1, posts a better form index (62.51 versus Cobolli’s 45.57) and a slightly higher mean serve index (96.08); fatigue is a distinguishing factor — Cobolli arrives fresh with 0 minutes on court in this tournament while Atmane carries 83 minutes of match time. Recent results underline the narrowness of the matchup. Cobolli’s run in Madrid included a tough straight-sets loss to Alexander Zverev but came after wins over Daniil Medvedev and Adolfo Daniel Vallejo, showing the capacity to beat top opponents. Atmane has mixed recent form as well: a straight-sets victory in Rome over Zizou Bergs and a solid win in Madrid over Ugo Humbert, tempered by a loss to Zverev. Those last-three performances help explain why the contest is expected to be tightly contested.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 24.9 Most likely outcome: 24 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Flavio Cobolli - Terence Atmane) +0.5 Most likely spread: 0 (even number of games won)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for the match sits at about 10.14 total, with a predicted aces profile tempered by the slow clay surface; clay typically reduces ace counts. The double faults prediction is 5.14 total, and the expected double faults may be influenced by longer rallies and physical strain on clay. Neither player has a markedly superior serve rating, so the ace count should reflect steady serving rather than blowouts.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 10.1 Most likely: 10 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.1 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

37.2% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Flavio Cobolli's perspective)

2-0 Most likely set score (35.6%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Atmane’s slight edge in the model comes from forward momentum and his recent Rome win, offset by lower ranking and higher fatigue. Watch how Cobolli’s return game and freshness perform early — breaking serve early could be decisive in a match expected to be short and tight.

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