Rome Italy Clay Masters 1000 Round of 32

Flavio Cobolli vs Thiago Agustin Tirante: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Flavio Cobolli

Rank: #12
59%
VS

Thiago Agustin Tirante

Rank: #69
41%
Expected Total Games: 25.1
Predicted Winner: Flavio Cobolli

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Ranking Trends

Flavio Cobolli

  • Current #12 2026-05-04
  • 3 mo ago #20 2026-02-02
  • 6 mo ago #22 2025-11-03
  • 9 mo ago #22 2025-08-04
  • 12 mo ago #34 2025-05-05

Thiago Agustin Tirante

  • Current #69 2026-05-04
  • 3 mo ago #95 2026-02-02
  • 6 mo ago #100 2025-11-03
  • 9 mo ago #135 2025-08-04
  • 12 mo ago #133 2025-05-05

Player Metrics

Flavio Cobolli

Form Index: 57.9
ELO Rating: 1832.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1839.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 106.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 24.5
Clay: 35.6
Grass: 29.9
Serve Rating: 95.5
Return Rating: 92.2

Thiago Agustin Tirante

Form Index: 67.9
ELO Rating: 1721.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1749.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 215.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 19.6
Clay: 22.4
Grass: 9.5
Serve Rating: 95.1
Return Rating: 85.8

Recent Matches

Flavio Cobolli
✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ✅

Thiago Agustin Tirante
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Cameron Norrie (2-0) clay Rome 86 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Gianluca Cadenasso (2-1) clay Rome 129 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Cameron Norrie (0-2) clay Madrid 108 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Tommy Paul (2-0) clay Madrid 102 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Roberto Bautista Agut (2-0) clay Madrid 77 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Flavio Cobolli
vs
1
Thiago Agustin Tirante
Hard
0 - 1
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In Rome, Italy, the masters_1000 event reaches its round of 32 on clay, where Flavio Cobolli meets Thiago Agustin Tirante. The model favors Cobolli, projecting a 59.24% chance of victory to Tirante’s 40.76%, with an expected 25.12 total games in the match.

Match Analysis

Cobolli arrives as the higher-ranked player (No. 12) with an Elo of 1832.6 versus Tirante’s 1721.8 and carries a clear advantage in return quality — a mean return index of 92.21 compared to Tirante’s 85.79 (a gap larger than five points). Cobolli’s surface strength index (35.63) also edges Tirante’s 22.40, and his cumulative fatigue this week is lower (106 minutes to Tirante’s 215), which could matter physically on demanding clay. Both players show very similar serving metrics (mean serve indices 95.48 vs 95.05), so pure serve power is unlikely to decisively separate them. Form tells a mixed story: Tirante’s form index (67.88) is superior to Cobolli’s (57.91), and he’s strung together two straight wins in Rome, including a tidy 2-0 over Cameron Norrie. Cobolli, meanwhile, has beaten Terence Atmane in his most recent match and boasts notable scalps recently — a win over Medvedev in Madrid — but also a loss to Zverev. Overall, Cobolli’s higher rank, superior return numbers and fresher legs balance against Tirante’s momentum at this event.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 25.1 Most likely outcome: 25 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Flavio Cobolli - Thiago Agustin Tirante) +1.1 Most likely spread: +1 (Flavio Cobolli wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction sits at 8.64 for the match, with an expected double faults total of 4.58. On clay, the predicted aces are suppressed by the slow, high-bouncing surface while expected double faults can rise as rallies and fatigue accumulate. With serve ratings nearly identical, there’s no single player projected to inflate the predicted aces count substantially.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 8.6 Most likely: 8 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.6 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

32.6% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Flavio Cobolli's perspective)

2-0 Most likely set score (42.2%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Cobolli’s edge comes from better ranking, higher Elo and a significantly stronger return game combined with lower accumulated fatigue. The key factor to watch will be whether Tirante’s current form and match rhythm on clay can offset Cobolli’s return pressure and fresher legs.

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