Us Open NY, U.S.A. Hard Grand Slam Round of 16

Daniil Medvedev vs Frances Tiafoe: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Daniil Medvedev

Rank: #8
61%
VS

Frances Tiafoe

Rank: #12
39%
Expected Total Games: 36.9
Predicted Winner: Daniil Medvedev

Why the Model Favors Daniil Medvedev

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Recent record by level +7.5 Daniil Medvedev
Serve & return game +3.1 Daniil Medvedev
Surface fit +2.6 Daniil Medvedev
Overall record & opposition quality +1.9 Frances Tiafoe
Overall strength +1.5 Frances Tiafoe

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 61% for Daniil Medvedev. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Daniil Medvedev

  • Current #8 2026-08-24
  • 3 mo ago #8 2026-05-25
  • 6 mo ago #11 2026-03-02
  • 9 mo ago #13 2025-12-01
  • 12 mo ago #13 2025-08-25

Frances Tiafoe

  • Current #12 2026-08-24
  • 3 mo ago #22 2026-05-25
  • 6 mo ago #22 2026-03-02
  • 9 mo ago #30 2025-12-01
  • 12 mo ago #17 2025-08-25

Player Metrics

Daniil Medvedev

Form Index: 52.3
ELO Rating: 1823.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1880.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 522.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 46.9
Clay: 28.8
Grass: 24.1
Serve Rating: 96.7
Return Rating: 91.0

Frances Tiafoe

Form Index: 77.6
ELO Rating: 1965.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1899.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 522.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 48.7
Clay: 29.9
Grass: 28.9
Serve Rating: 95.7
Return Rating: 88.0

Recent Matches

Daniil Medvedev
✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Arthur Rinderknech (3-0) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Sebastian Gorzny (3-0) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Hugo Gaston (3-0) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Martin Damm (0-2) hard Winston Salem 82 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Brandon Nakashima (1-2) hard Cincinnati 171 min

Frances Tiafoe
✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

1
Daniil Medvedev
vs
0
Frances Tiafoe
Hard
1 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

This is a Round of 16 match at the US Open in New York on outdoor hard courts, a Grand Slam setting where margin for error is small. The model favors Daniil Medvedev to win, projecting a 61.36% probability for Medvedev and 38.64% for Frances Tiafoe. The expected total number of games in the match is about 36.92.

Match Analysis

The model’s edge for Medvedev comes mainly from recent record by level, contributing 7.5 percentage points toward him, with additional gains from serve and return game (3.1 points) and surface fit (2.6 points). Medvedev is ranked 8, has a form index of 52.28, an Elo of 1823.15, cumulative fatigue of 522 minutes, and a surface strength index of 46.94. He shows excellent serve and return profiles with a mean serve index of 96.75 and a mean return index of 91.00. Over his last three matches at this event he has won all three in straight sets. Tiafoe is ranked 12, carries a stronger form index at 77.64, and posts a higher Elo at 1965.09. His fatigue is also 522 minutes and his surface strength index is 48.66. Tiafoe’s mean serve index is 95.70 and his mean return index is 88.02. Those attributes explain why the model still assigns small advantages to Frances on overall record and strength, contributing a combined 3.4 percentage points in his favor. He arrives here with two straight-set victories and a third match that went five sets, showing recent resilience and rhythm.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 36.9 Most likely outcome: 35 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Daniil Medvedev - Frances Tiafoe) +0.5 Most likely spread: 0 (even number of games won)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction sees about 18.76 total aces expected in the match, split as 11.14 for Medvedev and 7.92 for Tiafoe. The predicted aces reflect the medium-paced hard court, which produces a moderate ace count relative to grass or clay. The double faults prediction is 8.95 expected double faults overall, with 5.14 for Medvedev and 3.81 for Tiafoe. With serve ratings close, the per player ace projections (11.14 and 7.92) quantify a modest serving edge for Medvedev rather than a large gap.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 18.8 Most likely: 16 aces Per player: Daniil Medvedev 11.1 + Frances Tiafoe 7.9
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 8.9 Most likely: 7 double faults Per player: Daniil Medvedev 5.1 + Frances Tiafoe 3.8

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Daniil Medvedev

Expected 11.1 aces

Frances Tiafoe

Expected 7.9 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Daniil Medvedev

Expected 5.1 double faults

Frances Tiafoe

Expected 3.8 double faults

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

46.3% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO5

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Daniil Medvedev's perspective)

3-0 Most likely set score (24.4%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Medvedev’s advantage is driven primarily by his recent results at this level, supported by a strong serve and return profile on hard courts. A key factor to watch will be Medvedev’s return performance early in sets, which the model treats as a decisive edge.

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