Halle Germany Grass Atp 500 Quarterfinals

Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Frances Tiafoe

Rank: #26
34%
VS

Felix Auger-Aliassime

Rank: #4
66%
Expected Total Games: 28.0
Predicted Winner: Felix Auger-Aliassime

Why the Model Favors Felix Auger-Aliassime

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Recent record by level +7.1 Felix Auger-Aliassime
Surface fit +3.1 Felix Auger-Aliassime
Age +2.2 Felix Auger-Aliassime
Overall strength +1.6 Felix Auger-Aliassime
Recent form +1.5 Frances Tiafoe

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 66% for Felix Auger-Aliassime. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network — not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Also available in Claude. Query these predictions in plain language — our native connector lets Claude call our models on demand, no code.

Set it up

Ranking Trends

Frances Tiafoe

  • Current #26 2026-06-15
  • 3 mo ago #20 2026-03-16
  • 6 mo ago #30 2025-12-15
  • 9 mo ago #29 2025-09-15
  • 12 mo ago #13 2025-06-16

Felix Auger-Aliassime

  • Current #4 2026-06-15
  • 3 mo ago #8 2026-03-16
  • 6 mo ago #5 2025-12-15
  • 9 mo ago #13 2025-09-15
  • 12 mo ago #27 2025-06-16

Player Metrics

Frances Tiafoe

Form Index: 60.8
ELO Rating: 1803.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1832.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 172.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 34.2
Clay: 29.9
Grass: 20.7
Serve Rating: 96.7
Return Rating: 94.8

Felix Auger-Aliassime

Form Index: 57.1
ELO Rating: 1840.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1910.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 264.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 43.4
Clay: 32.8
Grass: 31.2
Serve Rating: 97.3
Return Rating: 86.3

Recent Matches

Frances Tiafoe
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Sho Shimabukuro (2-0) grass Halle 88 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Flavio Cobolli (2-0) grass Halle 84 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Jiri Lehecka (0-2) grass Stuttgart 85 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Rinky Hijikata (2-0) grass Stuttgart 79 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Daniel Altmaier (2-1) grass Stuttgart 146 min

Felix Auger-Aliassime
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Learner Tien (2-1) grass Halle 151 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Nuno Borges (2-1) grass Halle 113 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Kamil Majchrzak (0-2) grass S Hertogenbosch 69 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Marton Fucsovics (2-0) grass S Hertogenbosch 73 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Flavio Cobolli (1-3) clay Roland Garros 174 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Frances Tiafoe
vs
0
Felix Auger-Aliassime
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Quarterfinals in Halle, Germany on fast grass — an important ATP 500 warm-up for Wimbledon — pits Frances Tiafoe against Felix Auger-Aliassime. The model prefers Auger-Aliassime to win (65.95%) over Tiafoe (34.05%), with an expected total of about 28.01 games in the match.

Match Analysis

The model’s edge for Auger-Aliassime comes mainly from his recent record at this level and a better surface fit. Auger-Aliassime carries a higher ranking (4) and a superior Elo (1840.85) compared with Tiafoe (rank 26, Elo 1803.07), and his grass surface strength index (31.25 vs 20.72) gives him a measurable advantage on the quick courts. Age and overall strength metrics also nudge the probability toward Auger-Aliassime, while Tiafoe’s recent form provides a small counterweight. Looking deeper, Tiafoe’s form index (60.81) is slightly higher than Auger-Aliassime’s (57.13). Tiafoe has spent 172 minutes on court in this event with two straight-set wins in Halle (88 and 84 minutes), after a loss in Stuttgart; Auger-Aliassime is more battle-worn at 264 minutes, with two 3-set victories in Halle (151 and 113 minutes) and one earlier straight-sets loss. Serve profiles are comparable: mean serve indices are nearly identical (Tiafoe 96.70, Auger-Aliassime 97.30), but Tiafoe’s mean return index (94.83) is materially higher than Auger-Aliassime’s (86.29), which could make returning crucial on grass despite the surface favoring servers.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 28.0 Most likely outcome: 28 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Frances Tiafoe - Felix Auger-Aliassime) -1.5 Most likely spread: -2 (Felix Auger-Aliassime wins 2 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

On grass, an aces prediction skew toward a high tally is expected; the model’s predicted aces for this match is 18.65 and the expected double faults is 4.89. Both players possess elite serve indices so the predicted aces reflect strong serving and the quick surface; with no significant gap in serve rating, neither player alone dominates the predicted aces. Given Tiafoe’s superior return numbers, he may temper Auger-Aliassime’s predicted aces, affecting the final count.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 18.6 Most likely: 18 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.9 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

51.6% Predicted: Tiebreak likely

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Frances Tiafoe's perspective)

0-2 Most likely set score (40.8%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Auger-Aliassime’s advantage is driven primarily by his recent record at this level and a better surface fit. Watch Tiafoe’s return game — it’s the single factor most likely to swing short rallies and pivotal service games on Halle’s grass.

Get Daily Tennis Predictions

Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven tennis predictions directly on your phone.

Join Our Telegram Channel