Us Open NY, U.S.A. Hard Grand Slam Round of 128

Frances Tiafoe vs Yoshihito Nishioka Prediction

Frances Tiafoe

Rank: #14
68%
VS

Yoshihito Nishioka

Rank: #130
32%
Expected Total Games: 37.0
Predicted Winner: Frances Tiafoe

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Ranking Trends

Frances Tiafoe

  • Current #14 2025-08-04
  • 3 mo ago #16 2025-05-26
  • 6 mo ago #18 2025-02-24
  • 9 mo ago #18 2024-11-25
  • 12 mo ago #20 2024-08-26

Yoshihito Nishioka

  • Current #130 2025-08-04
  • 3 mo ago #77 2025-05-26
  • 6 mo ago #60 2025-02-24
  • 9 mo ago #70 2024-11-25
  • 12 mo ago #53 2024-08-26

Player Metrics

Frances Tiafoe

Form Index: 50.3
ELO Rating: 1569.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1712.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 13.4
Clay: 14.4
Grass: 19.7
Serve Rating: 97.1
Return Rating: 87.0

Yoshihito Nishioka

Form Index: 15.6
ELO Rating: 824.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1572.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 8.0
Clay: 6.9
Grass: 7.7
Serve Rating: 95.5
Return Rating: 86.2

Recent Matches

Frances Tiafoe
❌ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Holger Rune (0-2) hard Cincinnati 72 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Ugo Humbert (2-0) hard Cincinnati 83 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Roberto Carballes Baena (2-0) hard Cincinnati 90 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Alex de Minaur (1-2) hard Toronto 144 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Aleksandar Vukic (2-1) hard Toronto 110 min

Yoshihito Nishioka
❌ ❌ ❌ ❌ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Frances Tiafoe
vs
2
Yoshihito Nishioka
Hard
0 - 2
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The matchup between Frances Tiafoe and Yoshihito Nishioka is set to unfold at the US Open in New York, USA, as part of the Round of 128 on hard court. Tiafoe is predicted to emerge victorious, with a win probability of 68.18% compared to Nishioka's 31.82%. The expected total number of games played in this encounter is 37.0.

Match Analysis

Frances Tiafoe, currently ranked 14th, boasts a form index of 50.26 and an Elo rating of 1568.97. His surface strength index of 13.45 and mean serve index of 97.14 highlight his proficiency on hard courts. Notably, Tiafoe's mean return index is significantly higher than Nishioka's by over 5 points, which could prove crucial in dictating the flow of the match. In contrast, Yoshihito Nishioka is ranked 130th and has a form index of 15.61, alongside a much lower Elo rating of 824.34. His surface strength index and mean serve index both trail Tiafoe, indicating a potential disadvantage. Recent performances reveal stark contrasts between the two players. Tiafoe's last three matches included a tough loss to Holger Rune but victories against Ugo Humbert and Roberto Carballes Baena, demonstrating his competitive edge. Conversely, Nishioka has struggled, suffering defeats against Pablo Carreno Busta, Terence Atmane, and Ethan Quinn, all without winning a set. This trend suggests a lack of momentum heading into their encounter.

Final Prediction

Frances Tiafoe's superior ranking, form index, and service capabilities provide him with a notable advantage over Yoshihito Nishioka. One key factor to watch will be Tiafoe's ability to capitalize on his return game, as this could significantly affect Nishioka's chances of competing effectively throughout the match.

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