Us Open NY, U.S.A. Hard Grand Slam Round of 128

Francesco Passaro vs Flavio Cobolli Prediction

Francesco Passaro

Rank: #118
31%
VS

Flavio Cobolli

Rank: #22
69%
Predicted Games Played: 37.0
Predicted Winner: Flavio Cobolli

Player Metrics

Francesco Passaro

Form Index: 79.7
ELO Rating: 705.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1572.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 522.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 6.2
Clay: 5.9
Grass: 4.1
Serve Rating: 96.1
Return Rating: 87.3

Flavio Cobolli

Form Index: 41.8
ELO Rating: 1336.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1651.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 9.6
Clay: 13.1
Grass: 11.8
Serve Rating: 95.3
Return Rating: 88.2

Recent Matches

Francesco Passaro

  • Last Match: vs Henrique Rocha (2-0) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez (2-1) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Yu Hsiou Hsu (2-1) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli (1-2) clay Umag 152 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Matej Dodig (2-1) clay Umag 117 min

Flavio Cobolli

  • Last Match: vs Terence Atmane (1-2) hard Cincinnati 134 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Ben Shelton (1-2) hard Toronto 144 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Fabian Marozsan (2-1) hard Toronto 110 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Alexis Galarneau (2-1) hard Toronto 148 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Frances Tiafoe (0-2) hard Washington 72 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Francesco Passaro
vs
0
Flavio Cobolli
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the Round of 128 at the 2025 US Open, Francesco Passaro will face Flavio Cobolli on hard courts in New York City. Cobolli is favored to win this matchup with a probability of 68.60%, compared to Passaro's 31.40%. The predicted total number of games played is approximately 37.

Match Analysis

Francesco Passaro, currently ranked 118, has a form index of 79.69 and an Elo rating of 705.90. He has shown strong performance recently, winning all three of his prior matches at this tournament, including a 2-0 victory over Henrique Rocha. However, his cumulative fatigue has reached 522 minutes, which could impact his stamina in longer rallies. Passaro's mean serve index is a solid 96.09, while his mean return index stands at 87.30. He demonstrates decent capabilities in both serving and returning, yet he is playing against a higher-ranked opponent. Flavio Cobolli, ranked 22, has a significantly higher Elo rating of 1336.66 and a surface strength index of 9.58, showcasing his proficiency on hard surfaces. Despite a less favorable form index of 41.85, Cobolli's recent performances have been mixed, losing his last two matches but winning his third match prior. His mean serve index is 95.33, and his mean return index is slightly better at 88.20 than Passaro's, but the difference is not significant enough to highlight. Notably, Cobolli comes into this match with zero cumulative fatigue, providing him with a potential advantage in terms of energy levels.

Final Prediction

Flavio Cobolli's higher rank and Elo rating, combined with his fresh legs due to no cumulative fatigue, give him a distinct edge over Francesco Passaro. The key factor to watch during this match will be how both players handle their service games, especially since both maintain strong serve and return indices, which could lead to pivotal moments in the match.