Australian Open Australia Hard Grand Slam Round of 32

Francisco Cerundolo vs Andrey Rublev: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Francisco Cerundolo

Rank: #20
41%
VS

Andrey Rublev

Rank: #14
59%
Expected Total Games: 35.4
Predicted Winner: Andrey Rublev

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Player Metrics

Francisco Cerundolo

Form Index: 81.1
ELO Rating: 1961.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1663.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 348.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 13.1
Clay: 13.3
Grass: 14.6
Serve Rating: 76.2
Return Rating: 92.0

Andrey Rublev

Form Index: 85.6
ELO Rating: 2510.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1852.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 348.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 49.2
Clay: 57.9
Grass: 60.1
Serve Rating: 97.9
Return Rating: 94.4

Recent Matches

Francisco Cerundolo

Andrey Rublev

  • Last Match: vs Jaime Faria (3-1) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Matteo Arnaldi (3-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Lorenzo Musetti (1-2) hard Hong Kong 163 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Nuno Borges (2-0) hard Hong Kong 73 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Yibing Wu (2-1) hard Hong Kong 97 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Francisco Cerundolo
vs
0
Andrey Rublev
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The Round of 32 match at the Australian Open sees Francisco Cerundolo face off against Andrey Rublev on hard courts in Australia. The predicted winner is Andrey Rublev, with a 59.41% probability of victory, while Cerundolo's chances stand at 40.59%. The expected total number of games in this match is approximately 35.4.

Match Analysis

Andrey Rublev, currently ranked 14th, possesses a higher form index of 85.57 compared to Cerundolo's 81.12, indicating superior current performance. In terms of Elo ratings, Rublev’s 2510 significantly outstrips Cerundolo’s 1961, showcasing a considerable gap in overall playing strength. Fatigue levels for both players are equal at 348 minutes, but Rublev's surface strength index of 49.16 greatly surpasses Cerundolo's 13.08, suggesting he is more adept on hard courts. Notably, Rublev's mean serve index of 97.86 is markedly higher than Cerundolo’s 76.22, indicating a significant advantage in serve capabilities. The difference in mean return indices is less pronounced but still favors Rublev (94.41) over Cerundolo (92.01). Both players have shown strong form in their recent matches. Cerundolo has won his last two matches convincingly, both at the Australian Open, without dropping a set. In contrast, Rublev has also performed well, winning his last two matches but faced a tougher challenge in his most recent outing, where he lost a set. Cerundolo's recent performances reflect his potential, but Rublev's consistent track record places him in a stronger position heading into this matchup.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 35.4 Most likely outcome: 35 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Probability distribution chart for total games in Francisco Cerundolo versus Andrey Rublev. The X-axis shows possible total games values and the Y-axis shows the predicted probability percentage for each outcome.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total games in Francisco Cerundolo versus Andrey Rublev. The curve rises from 0% to 100%, showing the cumulative probability for each games total threshold.

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Francisco Cerundolo - Andrey Rublev) +0.4 Most likely spread: 0 (even number of games won)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Probability distribution chart for games spread in Francisco Cerundolo versus Andrey Rublev. Positive values indicate Francisco Cerundolo winning more games, negative values indicate Andrey Rublev winning more games.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for games spread in Francisco Cerundolo versus Andrey Rublev. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each spread threshold.

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The expected aces for this match are approximately 15.35, with a predicted total of around 3.91 double faults. Given the hard court surface, which balances serve and return capabilities, the ace prediction indicates a competitive serving display from both players. Rublev’s significantly higher mean serve index suggests he may contribute more to the aces count, while the expected double faults indicate room for potential errors, particularly under pressure.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 15.3 Most likely: 15 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 3.9 Most likely: 3 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Probability distribution chart for total aces in Francisco Cerundolo versus Andrey Rublev. Higher ace counts are more likely on faster surfaces like grass.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total aces in Francisco Cerundolo versus Andrey Rublev. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each aces threshold.

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Probability distribution chart for double faults in Francisco Cerundolo versus Andrey Rublev. Clay surface matches tend to produce more double faults due to fatigue in longer rallies.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for double faults in Francisco Cerundolo versus Andrey Rublev. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each double faults threshold.

Final Prediction

Andrey Rublev's higher ranking, superior Elo rating, and exceptional serve capabilities suggest he holds the advantage going into this match against Francisco Cerundolo. A key factor to monitor will be the effectiveness of Rublev's serve, as his ability to dominate in this area could be decisive in securing his progression in the tournament.

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