Roland Garros France Clay Grand Slam Round of 128

Francisco Cerundolo vs Botic van de Zandschulp: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Francisco Cerundolo

Rank: #27
65%
VS

Botic van de Zandschulp

Rank: #53
35%
Expected Total Games: 37.2
Predicted Winner: Francisco Cerundolo

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Ranking Trends

Francisco Cerundolo

  • Current #27 2026-05-18
  • 3 mo ago #19 2026-02-23
  • 6 mo ago #21 2025-11-24
  • 9 mo ago #19 2025-08-25
  • 12 mo ago #18 2025-05-26

Botic van de Zandschulp

  • Current #53 2026-05-18
  • 3 mo ago #61 2026-02-23
  • 6 mo ago #77 2025-11-24
  • 9 mo ago #73 2025-08-25
  • 12 mo ago #89 2025-05-26

Player Metrics

Francisco Cerundolo

Form Index: 37.9
ELO Rating: 1781.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1839.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 40.2
Clay: 28.2
Grass: 15.4
Serve Rating: 96.0
Return Rating: 96.2

Botic van de Zandschulp

Form Index: 41.0
ELO Rating: 1660.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1722.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 24.0
Clay: 17.4
Grass: 11.0
Serve Rating: 95.0
Return Rating: 88.0

Recent Matches

Francisco Cerundolo
❌ ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Alex de Minaur (1-2) clay Hamburg 129 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Lorenzo Musetti (0-2) clay Rome 132 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Alejandro Tabilo (1-0) clay Rome 69 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Alexander Blockx (0-2) clay Madrid 98 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Luciano Darderi (2-0) clay Madrid 74 min

Botic van de Zandschulp
❌ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

2
Francisco Cerundolo
vs
0
Botic van de Zandschulp
Hard
1 - 0
Clay
1 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Roland-Garros opens its main draw on clay in Paris with a first-round meeting between Francisco Cerúndolo and Botic van de Zandschulp. The model gives Cerúndolo the edge: 65.15% chance to win versus 34.85% for van de Zandschulp, with an expected total of 37.21 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Cerúndolo arrives as the higher-ranked player (No. 27) with an Elo of 1781.7 and a form index of 37.9. His surface strength index on clay (28.15) and zero minutes of tournament fatigue suggest he’s physically fresh despite mixed recent results. Van de Zandschulp, ranked 53 with an Elo of 1660.4 and a slightly higher form index (40.98), shows lower clay-specific strength (17.40) but comparable serving metrics. Neither player carries match-court fatigue into this round. Serve and return profiles matter here. Their mean serve indexes are nearly identical (Cerúndolo 95.98 vs van de Zandschulp 95.00), so serve power should not be a decisive gap. The mean return index, however, favors Cerúndolo (96.20 vs 87.95) by over 8 points, indicating a consistent return advantage on his side. Over their last three matches Cerúndolo is 1–2, with a hard-fought three-set loss to Alex de Minaur and a straight-sets defeat to Lorenzo Musetti, while he did record a quicker win over Alejandro Tabilo. Van de Zandschulp comes in 2–1 from Rome, beating Kovacevic and Muller before a three-set exit to Khachanov; his recent wins suggest resilience but little evidence of clay dominance.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 37.2 Most likely outcome: 37 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Francisco Cerundolo - Botic van de Zandschulp) +1.2 Most likely spread: +1 (Francisco Cerundolo wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this match sits at a modest 12.05 total, while the expected double faults total is 8.93. On slow clay, the predicted aces are restrained and the expected double faults are relatively elevated—slow conditions reduce outright winners and long rallies can increase serving errors. Since neither player has a significantly higher serve rating, the predicted aces are driven more by match context than a single dominant server.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 12.1 Most likely: 12 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 8.9 Most likely: 8 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

38.0% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO5

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Francisco Cerundolo's perspective)

3-0 Most likely set score (33.0%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Cerúndolo’s superior Elo, higher clay-specific return profile and marginally stronger form give him the projected edge in a baseline, attritional clay contest. Watch the returns and break-point conversion early—if Cerúndolo imposes his return game, he should tilt the match in his favor.

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