Roland Garros France Clay Grand Slam Round of 64

Francisco Cerundolo vs Hugo Gaston: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Francisco Cerundolo

Rank: #27
76%
VS

Hugo Gaston

Rank: #120
24%
Expected Total Games: 37.4
Predicted Winner: Francisco Cerundolo

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Ranking Trends

Francisco Cerundolo

  • Current #27 2026-05-18
  • 3 mo ago #19 2026-02-23
  • 6 mo ago #21 2025-11-24
  • 9 mo ago #19 2025-08-25
  • 12 mo ago #18 2025-05-26

Hugo Gaston

  • Current #120 2026-05-18
  • 3 mo ago #95 2026-02-23
  • 6 mo ago #98 2025-11-24
  • 9 mo ago #125 2025-08-25
  • 12 mo ago #83 2025-05-26

Player Metrics

Francisco Cerundolo

Form Index: 49.6
ELO Rating: 1807.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1845.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 174.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 40.2
Clay: 30.0
Grass: 15.4
Serve Rating: 95.9
Return Rating: 96.2

Hugo Gaston

Form Index: 39.1
ELO Rating: 1531.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1472.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 174.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 15.7
Clay: 10.6
Grass: 7.7
Serve Rating: 93.9
Return Rating: 88.3

Recent Matches

Francisco Cerundolo
✅ ❌ ❌ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Botic van de Zandschulp (3-1) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Alex de Minaur (1-2) clay Hamburg 129 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Lorenzo Musetti (0-2) clay Rome 132 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Alejandro Tabilo (1-0) clay Rome 69 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Alexander Blockx (0-2) clay Madrid 98 min

Hugo Gaston
✅ ❌ ❌ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Gael Monfils (3-2) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Karen Khachanov (1-2) clay Hamburg 158 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Ignacio Buse (0-2) clay Hamburg 71 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Marko Topo (2-0) clay Hamburg 67 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Andrea Pellegrino (0-2) clay Rome 65 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

1
Francisco Cerundolo
vs
0
Hugo Gaston
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
1 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

At Roland Garros in Paris, Round of 64 on clay, Francisco Cerundolo is strongly favored to progress in this grand slam match. The model gives Cerundolo a 76.25% chance to win versus 23.75% for Hugo Gaston, with an expected total of about 37.44 games in the contest.

Match Analysis

Cerundolo arrives as the higher-ranked player (No. 27) with an Elo of 1807.93 and a form index of 49.57; his surface strength index on clay is 30.01. Gaston is ranked 120, carries an Elo of 1531.41 and a form index of 39.15, and posts a much lower clay strength index of 10.63. Both players show identical cumulative fatigue from the tournament (174 minutes on court). Cerundolo’s mean serve (95.91) and return (96.17) indices are both strong; the return index advantage over Gaston (88.28) is notable and likely to matter on slow clay, while the difference in serve indices is under 5 points and not decisive. Looking at recent form, Cerundolo beat Botic van de Zandschulp in a 3–1 Roland Garros opener after two earlier clay losses to Alex de Minaur and Lorenzo Musetti. Gaston upset Gaël Monfils 3–2 in his last Roland Garros match but had earlier defeats to Karen Khachanov and Ignacio Buse on clay. Both have experienced mixed results, but Cerundolo’s higher ranking, superior Elo and better return metrics give him a consistent edge.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 37.4 Most likely outcome: 37 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Francisco Cerundolo - Hugo Gaston) +2.7 Most likely spread: +2 (Francisco Cerundolo wins 2 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction sits at about 8.58 total for the match while the predicted double faults are 7.61. On clay, fewer service winners are typical: the surface reduces raw pace and yield higher bounces, so the predicted aces reflect that reality. Expected double faults are elevated relative to quicker surfaces because longer rallies and accumulated fatigue (both players at 174 minutes) can increase serving errors. Neither player has a significantly superior serve rating to markedly boost the ace count.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 8.6 Most likely: 8 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 7.6 Most likely: 7 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

29.6% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO5

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Francisco Cerundolo's perspective)

3-0 Most likely set score (42.9%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Cerundolo’s higher rank, superior Elo and notably better return index on clay explain why he is favored. Watch his ability to break Gaston early—if Cerundolo converts return opportunities and avoids lapses in serve consistency, the match should tilt in his direction.

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