Beijing China Hard Atp 500 Round of 16

Francisco Cerundolo vs Jakub Mensik Prediction

Francisco Cerundolo

Rank: #22
25%
VS

Jakub Mensik

Rank: #14
75%
Expected Total Games: 24.2
Predicted Winner: Jakub Mensik

Why the Model Favors Jakub Mensik

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Serve & return game +9.2 Jakub Mensik
Recent record by level +5.5 Jakub Mensik
Surface fit +3.8 Jakub Mensik
Recent form +2.7 Jakub Mensik
Age +1.9 Jakub Mensik

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 75% for Jakub Mensik. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Francisco Cerundolo

  • Current #22 2026-09-28
  • 3 mo ago #21 2026-06-29
  • 6 mo ago #20 2026-03-30
  • 9 mo ago #21 2025-12-29
  • 12 mo ago #21 2025-09-29

Jakub Mensik

  • Current #14 2026-09-28
  • 3 mo ago #18 2026-06-29
  • 6 mo ago #26 2026-03-30
  • 9 mo ago #19 2025-12-29
  • 12 mo ago #16 2025-09-29

Player Metrics

Francisco Cerundolo

Form Index: 47.5
ELO Rating: 1804.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1839.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 167.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 36.0
Clay: 27.6
Grass: 20.4
Serve Rating: 95.8
Return Rating: 92.0

Jakub Mensik

Form Index: 52.9
ELO Rating: 1827.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1863.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 96.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 38.3
Clay: 39.9
Grass: 18.9
Serve Rating: 96.1
Return Rating: 86.8

Recent Matches

Francisco Cerundolo
✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ✅

Jakub Mensik
✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

1
Francisco Cerundolo
vs
0
Jakub Mensik
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
1 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The forecast favors Mensik in the Beijing Round of 16, giving him 75% to Cerundolo’s 25%, with 24.2 games expected. Mensik’s serving advantage, slight hard-court edge and recent win in Beijing help explain the gap.

Match Analysis

Mensik is projected to produce substantially more aces, pointing to a greater capacity to shorten service points. Cerundolo’s stronger return could make those games more demanding, but Mensik has the higher ranking, at No. 14 compared with Cerundolo at No. 22. Both players won their latest Beijing matches, though Mensik beat Alexander Bublik in straight sets in 96 minutes, while Cerundolo needed three sets and 167 minutes to defeat Botic van de Zandschulp. Mensik’s more recent result and much lower time on court give him an added advantage.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 24.2 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Francisco Cerundolo - Jakub Mensik) -3.1 Most likely spread: -4 (Jakub Mensik wins 4 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Cerundolo is projected for 4.1 aces and 3.4 double faults, while Mensik is forecast to hit 10.9 aces and 3.5 double faults. The large gap in expected aces reflects Mensik’s serving advantage, while the double-fault projections are nearly level.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 14.4 Most likely: 12 aces Per player: Francisco Cerundolo 4.1 + Jakub Mensik 10.9
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 6.9 Most likely: 5 double faults Per player: Francisco Cerundolo 3.4 + Jakub Mensik 3.5

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Francisco Cerundolo

Expected 4.1 aces

Jakub Mensik

Expected 10.9 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Francisco Cerundolo

Expected 3.4 double faults

Jakub Mensik

Expected 3.5 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

46.6% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Francisco Cerundolo's perspective)

0-2 Most likely set score (45.1%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Cerundolo’s return is his clearest way to disrupt the forecast. If he can blunt Mensik’s serve consistently, he may reduce the impact of the main advantage separating them.

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