Shanghai China Hard Masters 1000 Round of 32

Francisco Cerundolo vs Jakub Mensik Prediction

Francisco Cerundolo

Rank: #20
36%
VS

Jakub Mensik

Rank: #15
64%
Expected Total Games: 25.3
Predicted Winner: Jakub Mensik

Why the Model Favors Jakub Mensik

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Recent record by level +5.6 Jakub Mensik
Serve & return game +4.0 Jakub Mensik
Surface fit +3.3 Jakub Mensik
Age +2.1 Jakub Mensik
Recent form +2.0 Francisco Cerundolo

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 64% for Jakub Mensik. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Francisco Cerundolo

  • Current #20 2026-10-05
  • 3 mo ago #21 2026-06-29
  • 6 mo ago #19 2026-04-06
  • 9 mo ago #21 2026-01-05
  • 12 mo ago #21 2025-09-29

Jakub Mensik

  • Current #15 2026-10-05
  • 3 mo ago #18 2026-06-29
  • 6 mo ago #26 2026-04-06
  • 9 mo ago #18 2026-01-05
  • 12 mo ago #16 2025-09-29

Player Metrics

Francisco Cerundolo

Form Index: 52.3
ELO Rating: 1838.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1851.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 96.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 38.1
Clay: 27.6
Grass: 20.4
Serve Rating: 95.9
Return Rating: 91.9

Jakub Mensik

Form Index: 51.3
ELO Rating: 1816.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1861.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 59.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 37.3
Clay: 39.9
Grass: 18.9
Serve Rating: 96.1
Return Rating: 86.8

Recent Matches

Francisco Cerundolo
✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ❌

Jakub Mensik
✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

2
Francisco Cerundolo
vs
0
Jakub Mensik
Hard
1 - 0
Clay
1 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Jakub Mensik is favored at 64% to Francisco Cerundolo’s 36%, with 25.3 games expected. The Round of 32 match in Shanghai is a rematch after Cerundolo beat Mensik in straight sets in Beijing.

Match Analysis

Recent results pull in both directions: Cerundolo’s win over Mensik is a clear counterpoint to the forecast, while Mensik followed it with wins over Alexander Bublik and Miomir Kecmanovic. His latest victory took 59 minutes, and he has logged 59 minutes on court in Shanghai compared with Cerundolo’s 96. Mensik’s serve is the likelier source of separation, while Cerundolo is the stronger returner. Mensik also gets a modest boost from his hard-court fit, keeping the matchup close despite Cerundolo’s return advantage and slightly better recent form.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 25.3 Most likely outcome: 25 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Francisco Cerundolo - Jakub Mensik) -1.6 Most likely spread: -2 (Jakub Mensik wins 2 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Mensik is projected for 11.3 aces and 3.4 double faults, compared with 4.7 aces and 2.8 double faults for Cerundolo. Mensik’s slight serving edge supports the larger ace total, while both are projected to produce a few double faults on the hard court.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 15.3 Most likely: 13 aces Per player: Francisco Cerundolo 4.7 + Jakub Mensik 11.3
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 6.2 Most likely: 5 double faults Per player: Francisco Cerundolo 2.8 + Jakub Mensik 3.4

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Francisco Cerundolo

Expected 4.7 aces

Jakub Mensik

Expected 11.3 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Francisco Cerundolo

Expected 2.8 double faults

Jakub Mensik

Expected 3.4 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

43.3% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Francisco Cerundolo's perspective)

0-2 Most likely set score (39.2%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Cerundolo’s return is the specific threat to the forecast: if he can blunt Mensik’s serve, his recent straight-sets win over him shows he can turn the matchup around.

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