Jan-Lennard Struff vs Francisco Cerundolo: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

The model’s edge for Cerundolo comes mainly from recent record by level and age, with further support from overall strength, overall record versus opposition, and surface fit. Recent record by level contributes 7.4 percentage points toward Cerundolo. Both players opened the US Open with straight set wins, but the model places more weight on Cerundolo’s performances against higher level opponents across the lead-up events. Age shifts 4.1 points toward Cerundolo according to the explainability output. On paper Cerundolo also holds a slight advantage in Elo and ranking. His Elo is 1725.73 versus Struff’s 1720.40, and he sits at rank 25 against Struff at 44. Surface fit adds about 1.9 points to Cerundolo, reflected in his higher surface strength index of 34.03 compared with Struff’s 17.92. Struff brings a stronger recent form index and big-serving profile. His form index reads 59.59 compared with Cerundolo’s 31.30. Struff’s mean serve index is 96.12 and his mean return index is 86.90. Cerundolo’s mean serve index is 95.22 and his mean return index is 90.13. Fatigue is identical for both players at 174 minutes on court from the tournament. Over the last three matches Struff has two wins and one loss, including his US Open opener. Cerundolo also has the US Open win, bookended by two losses in warmup events. The contrast is a higher short term form number for Struff versus structural advantages for Cerundolo.