Shanghai China Hard Masters 1000 Round of 64

Francisco Cerundolo vs Roman Safiullin Prediction

Francisco Cerundolo

Rank: #20
54%
VS

Roman Safiullin

Rank: #79
46%
Expected Total Games: 25.9
Predicted Winner: Francisco Cerundolo

Why the Model Favors Francisco Cerundolo

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Serve & return game +6.5 Roman Safiullin
Overall strength +2.9 Francisco Cerundolo
Recent form +2.1 Francisco Cerundolo
Surface fit +2.0 Francisco Cerundolo
Overall record & opposition quality +1.8 Francisco Cerundolo

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 54% for Francisco Cerundolo. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Francisco Cerundolo

  • Current #20 2026-10-05
  • 3 mo ago #21 2026-06-29
  • 6 mo ago #19 2026-04-06
  • 9 mo ago #21 2026-01-05
  • 12 mo ago #21 2025-09-29

Roman Safiullin

  • Current #79 2026-10-05
  • 3 mo ago #132 2026-06-29
  • 6 mo ago #229 2026-04-06
  • 9 mo ago #170 2026-01-05
  • 12 mo ago #106 2025-09-29

Player Metrics

Francisco Cerundolo

Form Index: 44.0
ELO Rating: 1807.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1840.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 36.6
Clay: 27.6
Grass: 20.4
Serve Rating: 95.9
Return Rating: 91.9

Roman Safiullin

Form Index: 69.1
ELO Rating: 1830.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1828.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 220.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 25.6
Clay: 17.2
Grass: 23.5
Serve Rating: 95.5
Return Rating: 87.2

Recent Matches

Francisco Cerundolo
❌ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅

Roman Safiullin
✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

1
Francisco Cerundolo
vs
0
Roman Safiullin
Hard
1 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Cerundolo is a narrow favorite, with the forecast giving him a 54% chance of winning against Safiullin’s 46%. It points to a competitive match, with 25.9 games expected.

Match Analysis

Safiullin’s serve-and-return play is the main counterweight to Cerundolo’s advantage. He has won three straight matches in Shanghai, all in straight sets, and is projected to hit more aces. That gives him a way to put pressure on Cerundolo even though Cerundolo is the stronger returner. Cerundolo’s higher ranking and better hard-court fit help explain the narrow lean in his favor. Safiullin has spent 220 minutes on court in Shanghai, while Cerundolo has no tournament court time so far. That workload difference could matter if the match runs long.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 25.9 Most likely outcome: 25 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Francisco Cerundolo - Roman Safiullin) -0.4 Most likely spread: -1 (Roman Safiullin wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Safiullin is projected for 7.2 aces and 3.0 double faults, while Cerundolo is projected for 4.9 aces and 3.1 double faults. Their serve profiles are close, but Safiullin has the higher expected ace count, with almost no difference forecast in double faults.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 11.9 Most likely: 10 aces Per player: Francisco Cerundolo 4.9 + Roman Safiullin 7.2
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 6.1 Most likely: 5 double faults Per player: Francisco Cerundolo 3.1 + Roman Safiullin 3.0

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Francisco Cerundolo

Expected 4.9 aces

Roman Safiullin

Expected 7.2 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Francisco Cerundolo

Expected 3.1 double faults

Roman Safiullin

Expected 3.0 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

38.8% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Francisco Cerundolo's perspective)

2-0 Most likely set score (32.9%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Safiullin’s serving could flip the forecast if it keeps Cerundolo from taking control with his stronger return. His time on court in Shanghai, however, gives Cerundolo a possible advantage if the match stretches.

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