Beijing China Hard Atp 500 Quarterfinals

Hubert Hurkacz vs Karen Khachanov Prediction

Hubert Hurkacz

Rank: #41
37%
VS

Karen Khachanov

Rank: #26
63%
Expected Total Games: 25.5
Predicted Winner: Karen Khachanov

Why the Model Favors Karen Khachanov

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Overall strength +4.4 Karen Khachanov
Surface fit +3.9 Karen Khachanov
Serve & return game +3.4 Karen Khachanov
Recent record by level +3.0 Karen Khachanov
Recent form +2.3 Hubert Hurkacz

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 63% for Karen Khachanov. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Hubert Hurkacz

  • Current #41 2026-09-28
  • 3 mo ago #96 2026-06-29
  • 6 mo ago #72 2026-03-30
  • 9 mo ago #72 2025-12-29
  • 12 mo ago #78 2025-09-29

Karen Khachanov

  • Current #26 2026-09-28
  • 3 mo ago #22 2026-06-29
  • 6 mo ago #15 2026-03-30
  • 9 mo ago #17 2025-12-29
  • 12 mo ago #10 2025-09-29

Player Metrics

Hubert Hurkacz

Form Index: 69.8
ELO Rating: 1804.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1789.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 260.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 31.9
Clay: 23.1
Grass: 20.7
Serve Rating: 97.5
Return Rating: 87.3

Karen Khachanov

Form Index: 74.0
ELO Rating: 1877.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1752.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 145.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 37.7
Clay: 26.2
Grass: 30.1
Serve Rating: 96.0
Return Rating: 87.5

Recent Matches

Hubert Hurkacz
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Arthur Gea (2-1) hard Beijing 143 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Learner Tien (2-1) hard Beijing 117 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Denis Shapovalov (2-1) hard Chengdu 146 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Lloyd Harris (2-0) hard Chengdu 116 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Martin Damm (2-1) hard Chengdu 112 min

Karen Khachanov
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Hubert Hurkacz
vs
0
Karen Khachanov
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Karen Khachanov is favoured in this Beijing quarterfinal, with a 63% chance of winning against Hubert Hurkacz’s 37%. The forecast calls for 25.5 games, pointing to a potentially competitive contest.

Match Analysis

Khachanov’s higher ranking, stronger overall level and better hard-court profile explain the lean. He also has a slight return advantage, while Hurkacz’s stronger serve keeps the matchup from being one-sided. Hurkacz has won three straight matches, but each went to three sets, including a 143-minute win over Arthur Gea. Khachanov’s two Beijing victories, over Felix Auger-Aliassime and Alex Molcan, were both in straight sets. He has also spent 115 fewer minutes on court in the tournament, giving him a freshness advantage alongside his recent results.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 25.5 Most likely outcome: 25 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Hubert Hurkacz - Karen Khachanov) -0.8 Most likely spread: -1 (Karen Khachanov wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Hurkacz is projected for 11.5 aces and 2.4 double faults, compared with 7.6 aces and 2.2 double faults for Khachanov. Hurkacz’s stronger serving profile supports the gap in aces, while the double-fault estimates are close.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 17.6 Most likely: 16 aces Per player: Hubert Hurkacz 11.5 + Karen Khachanov 7.6
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.6 Most likely: 3 double faults Per player: Hubert Hurkacz 2.4 + Karen Khachanov 2.2

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Hubert Hurkacz

Expected 11.5 aces

Karen Khachanov

Expected 7.6 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Hubert Hurkacz

Expected 2.4 double faults

Karen Khachanov

Expected 2.2 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

45.8% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Hubert Hurkacz's perspective)

0-2 Most likely set score (33.5%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Hurkacz can upset the forecast by making his serve count and producing enough aces to limit Khachanov’s return opportunities. But Khachanov’s return advantage and lighter workload could tell over a longer match.

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