Ignacio Buse vs Andrey Rublev: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Rublev arrives as the higher-ranked player (No. 13) with an Elo of 1794.9, while Buse is ranked 57 with an Elo of 1716.5. Both show similar serving profiles—mean serve indices of 95.56 (Buse) and 95.37 (Rublev)—so there’s no clear serving edge on paper. Fatigue is negligible for both at this stage. On clay, Rublev posts a higher surface strength index (33.02) than Buse (23.90), indicating a modest advantage adapting tactics and movement on slower courts. Notably, Buse’s mean return index (93.20) is materially higher than Rublev’s (87.31), a gap worth monitoring as it could tilt short breaks in the younger man’s favor. Recent form tells a nuanced story. Buse comes in hot from Hamburg with three straight wins on clay, including a marathon 166-minute victory over Ugo Humbert and straight-set wins in his other matches, signaling confidence and match sharpness on this surface. Rublev’s build-up in Rome produced two wins (against Davidovich Fokina and Basilashvili) before a 0-2 loss to Jannik Sinner; his clay run shows quality but also vulnerability against top opponents.