Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Ignacio Buse: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

The model’s edge for Cerundolo comes mainly from the serve and return game, which contributes +4.0 percentage points to his win probability, and from recent form at this level, adding +2.6 points. Cerundolo brings a higher form index at 59.38 and an Elo of 1741.76, compared with Buse’s form index of 36.88 and Elo 1630.94. Those metrics underline Cerundolo’s steadier recent results and slightly stronger overall play. Surface fit also nudges Cerundolo forward by 1.8 points, though both players show similar surface strength indices on hard courts: 19.15 for Cerundolo and 18.95 for Buse. Buse earns model support through his overall record and the quality of opposition faced, which contributes 2.7 points toward his chances, and his age factor adds 1.4 points in his favor. Fatigue is a notable contrast. Cerundolo has spent 158 minutes on court in this event, while Buse has accumulated 253 minutes. That gap may matter late in rallies and in tight momentum swings. Serve and return indices are close. Cerundolo’s mean serve index is 95.94 versus Buse at 95.33. Return indices are 90.02 and 88.71 respectively. Over their last three matches Cerundolo has two wins at Winston-Salem and a loss to a top opponent in Cincinnati. Buse has also won two matches here, including a lengthy 135-minute victory over Daniel Altmaier, and a prior loss in Cincinnati.