Rome Italy Clay Masters 1000 Round of 16

Jack Draper vs Corentin Moutet Prediction

Jack Draper

Rank: #5
70%
VS

Corentin Moutet

Rank: #83
30%
Expected Total Games: 22.0
Predicted Winner: Jack Draper

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Ranking Trends

Jack Draper

  • Current #5 2025-05-05
  • 3 mo ago #16 2025-02-03
  • 6 mo ago #15 2024-11-04
  • 9 mo ago #28 2024-08-05
  • 12 mo ago #40 2024-05-06

Corentin Moutet

  • Current #83 2025-05-05
  • 3 mo ago #65 2025-02-03
  • 6 mo ago #66 2024-11-04
  • 9 mo ago #67 2024-08-05
  • 12 mo ago #83 2024-05-06

Player Metrics

Jack Draper

Form Index: 60.3
ELO Rating: 2752.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1682.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 179.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 23.3
Clay: 20.9
Grass: 23.0
Serve Rating: 97.4
Return Rating: 87.5

Corentin Moutet

Form Index: 51.1
ELO Rating: 1068.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1567.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 446.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 9.0
Clay: 9.8
Grass: 7.0
Serve Rating: 95.2
Return Rating: 88.9

Recent Matches

Jack Draper
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

Corentin Moutet
✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Holger Rune (2-1) clay Rome 224 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Ugo Humbert (2-0) clay Rome 69 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Rinky Hijikata (2-1) clay Rome 153 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Harold Mayot (0-2) clay Madrid 73 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Ethan Quinn (1-2) clay Barcelona 142 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Jack Draper
vs
0
Corentin Moutet
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming match between Jack Draper and Corentin Moutet in the Round of 16 at the Rome Masters 1000 promises to be an engaging encounter on clay. Jack Draper is favored to win with a probability of 70.16%, while Corentin Moutet has a 29.84% chance of taking the match. The predicted total number of games played is set at 22.0.

Match Analysis

Jack Draper, currently ranked 5th, holds a form index of 60.33 and an Elo rating of 2752.66. His fatigue level is relatively low at 179 minutes, suggesting he is in good shape as he progresses through the tournament. Draper’s surface strength index of 20.92 indicates a strong performance on clay, complemented by an impressive mean serve index of 97.39 and a mean return index of 87.54. Notably, his serve index is higher than Moutet’s by over 2 points, which is a significant advantage in this matchup. In contrast, Corentin Moutet is ranked 83rd and has a form index of 51.14, with an Elo rating of 1068.45. His cumulative fatigue is substantially higher at 446 minutes, which may impact his performance. Moutet's surface strength index is lower at 9.77, although he boasts a mean return index of 88.93, which is slightly better than Draper's. Over their last three matches, Draper has won two convincingly, while Moutet has also shown solid form, winning all three but against lower-ranked opponents.

Final Prediction

Draper’s higher ranking, stronger statistics, and lower fatigue levels provide him with a clear edge heading into this match. A key factor to monitor will be Draper's serve effectiveness, as Moutet's ability to handle it could significantly influence the outcome of the match.

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