Indian Wells CA, U.S.A. Hard Masters 1000 Round of 64

Roberto Bautista Agut vs Jack Draper: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Roberto Bautista Agut

Rank: #85
24%
VS

Jack Draper

Rank: #15
76%
Expected Total Games: 23.6
Predicted Winner: Jack Draper

Ranking Trends

Roberto Bautista Agut

  • Current Rank: #85 (2026-02-23)
  • 3 Months Ago: #92 (2025-12-01)
  • 6 Months Ago: #47 (2025-08-25)
  • 9 Months Ago: #49 (2025-05-26)
  • 12 Months Ago: #50 (2025-03-03)

Jack Draper

  • Current Rank: #15 (2026-02-23)
  • 3 Months Ago: #10 (2025-12-01)
  • 6 Months Ago: #5 (2025-08-25)
  • 9 Months Ago: #5 (2025-05-26)
  • 12 Months Ago: #14 (2025-03-03)

Player Metrics

Roberto Bautista Agut

Form Index: 32.2
ELO Rating: 647.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1600.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 140.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 4.2
Clay: 6.3
Grass: 7.8
Serve Rating: 74.1
Return Rating: 54.5

Jack Draper

Form Index: 58.6
ELO Rating: 2863.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1765.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 25.8
Clay: 25.7
Grass: 23.9
Serve Rating: 97.7
Return Rating: 89.9

Recent Matches

Roberto Bautista Agut
✅ ❌ ❌ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Fabian Marozsan (2-1) hard Indian Wells 140 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Cameron Norrie (0-2) hard Rotterdam 114 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Martin Damm (0-2) hard Montpellier 55 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Christopher O'Connell (2-1) hard Montpellier 168 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Juncheng Shang (1-3) hard Australian Open 174 min

Jack Draper
❌ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Arthur Rinderknech (1-2) hard Dubai 146 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Quentin Halys (2-0) hard Dubai 97 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Federico Agustin Gomez (3-1) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Marin Cilic (1-3) grass Wimbledon 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Sebastian Baez (3-0) grass Wimbledon 174 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Roberto Bautista Agut
vs
0
Jack Draper
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

At Indian Wells in California, Round of 64 on a hard court at a Masters 1000 event, this matchup pits veteran Roberto Bautista Agut against Britain’s big-hitting Jack Draper. The model favors Draper, projecting him to win with a 75.72% probability versus 24.28% for Bautista Agut, and predicts a relatively short match with an expected total of 23.64 games.

Match Analysis

The numbers show a clear gap: Bautista Agut is ranked 85 with a form index of 32.24 and an Elo of 647.11, while Draper sits at rank 15 with a stronger form index of 58.62 and a substantially higher Elo of 2863.29. Bautista arrives with 140 minutes of court time in this event (cumulative fatigue), whereas Draper is fresh with zero minutes logged here. Surface strength indices are both modest but favor Draper (25.80 vs 4.25). There’s a big serving differential — Draper’s mean serve index (97.67) tops Bautista’s (74.07) by more than 5 points, and the mean return gap is also pronounced (Draper 89.95 vs Bautista 54.54), suggesting Draper dominates both wings of the game on paper. Recent form reinforces that picture. Bautista has one win (2-1 at Indian Wells vs Marozsan) and two earlier hard-court losses to Cameron Norrie and Martin Damm, with his most recent match at this event lasting 140 minutes. Draper’s last three outings show two wins and a loss: a straight-set win over Quentin Halys and a long three-set match at the US Open earlier, followed by a three-set loss to Arthur Rinderknech in Dubai. Overall Draper’s higher form index and lack of accumulated fatigue give him the edge entering this encounter.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.6 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for the match is 13.22 total, while the predicted double faults sit at about 4.4. On a medium-paced hard court that produces a balanced serve environment, the predicted aces reflect Draper’s substantially higher serve rating — his big serve should inflate the predicted aces figure. Given the surface and the serving profiles, the double faults prediction remains moderate; expected double faults are low enough that serve consistency will still favor the player with the bigger serve.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 13.2 Most likely: 13 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.4 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Draper’s combination of superior Elo, higher serve and return indices, better recent form and freshness explains why he is the clear pick. The key factor to watch is Draper’s serve and how effectively Bautista can neutralize it with his return game early in rallies.

Get Daily Tennis Predictions

Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven tennis predictions directly on your phone.

Join Our Telegram Channel