Roberto Bautista Agut vs Jack Draper: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

The numbers show a clear gap: Bautista Agut is ranked 85 with a form index of 32.24 and an Elo of 647.11, while Draper sits at rank 15 with a stronger form index of 58.62 and a substantially higher Elo of 2863.29. Bautista arrives with 140 minutes of court time in this event (cumulative fatigue), whereas Draper is fresh with zero minutes logged here. Surface strength indices are both modest but favor Draper (25.80 vs 4.25). There’s a big serving differential — Draper’s mean serve index (97.67) tops Bautista’s (74.07) by more than 5 points, and the mean return gap is also pronounced (Draper 89.95 vs Bautista 54.54), suggesting Draper dominates both wings of the game on paper. Recent form reinforces that picture. Bautista has one win (2-1 at Indian Wells vs Marozsan) and two earlier hard-court losses to Cameron Norrie and Martin Damm, with his most recent match at this event lasting 140 minutes. Draper’s last three outings show two wins and a loss: a straight-set win over Quentin Halys and a long three-set match at the US Open earlier, followed by a three-set loss to Arthur Rinderknech in Dubai. Overall Draper’s higher form index and lack of accumulated fatigue give him the edge entering this encounter.