Wimbledon Great Britain Grass Grand Slam Round of 128

Jack Draper vs Sebastian Baez Prediction

Jack Draper

Rank: #4
70%
VS

Sebastian Baez

Rank: #38
30%
Expected Total Games: 36.0
Predicted Winner: Jack Draper

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Ranking Trends

Jack Draper

  • Current #4 2025-06-30
  • 3 mo ago #7 2025-03-31
  • 6 mo ago #15 2024-12-30
  • 9 mo ago #20 2024-09-30
  • 12 mo ago #28 2024-07-01

Sebastian Baez

  • Current #38 2025-06-30
  • 3 mo ago #36 2025-03-31
  • 6 mo ago #27 2024-12-30
  • 9 mo ago #26 2024-09-30
  • 12 mo ago #18 2024-07-01

Player Metrics

Jack Draper

Form Index: 65.8
ELO Rating: 2529.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1702.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 23.3
Clay: 19.8
Grass: 22.1
Serve Rating: 97.1
Return Rating: 87.1

Sebastian Baez

Form Index: 12.2
ELO Rating: 1059.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1620.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 9.6
Clay: 9.5
Grass: 13.6
Serve Rating: 95.1
Return Rating: 89.7

Recent Matches

Jack Draper
❌ ✅ ✅ ✅ ❌

Sebastian Baez
❌ ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

1
Jack Draper
vs
0
Sebastian Baez
Hard
1 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

As the prestigious Wimbledon tournament unfolds in Great Britain, the Round of 128 features an intriguing matchup between Jack Draper and Sebastian Baez on the grass courts. The predicted winner is Jack Draper, with a 70.08% chance of victory compared to Baez's 29.92%. The anticipated total number of games played in this encounter is 36.0.

Match Analysis

Jack Draper, currently ranked 4th, boasts a solid form index of 65.78 and an impressive Elo rating of 2529.35. His performance on grass is bolstered by a surface strength index of 22.12, indicating his proficiency on this surface. Notably, Draper’s mean serve index stands at 97.09, significantly higher than Baez's 95.13, creating a 1.96-point advantage, while his mean return index of 87.06 also exceeds Baez's 89.67, showcasing his ability to capitalize on service games. In contrast, Sebastian Baez, ranked 38th, has struggled recently, reflected in his form index of just 12.20. His Elo rating of 1059.09 and a surface strength index of 13.57 suggest difficulties adapting to the grass surface. Baez's last three matches, all on clay, resulted in losses, highlighting challenges in transitioning to grass. His recent performances indicate a lack of momentum, with a pattern of narrowly lost matches, which could affect his confidence heading into this encounter.

Final Prediction

Jack Draper's edge in ranking, form, and performance on grass gives him a distinct advantage going into the match against Sebastian Baez. A key factor to watch will be Draper's serve; if he can maintain his high mean serve index, it will likely put significant pressure on Baez, potentially dictating the flow of the match.

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