Vienna Austria Hard Atp 500 Round of 32

Jacob Fearnley vs Alexander Zverev Prediction

Jacob Fearnley

Rank: #81
21%
VS

Alexander Zverev

Rank: #3
79%
Predicted Games Played: 23.0
Predicted Winner: Alexander Zverev

Ranking Trends

Jacob Fearnley

  • Current Rank: #81 (2025-10-20)
  • 3 Months Ago: #55 (2025-07-21)
  • 6 Months Ago: #68 (2025-04-21)
  • 9 Months Ago: #92 (2025-01-13)
  • 12 Months Ago: #92 (2024-10-21)

Alexander Zverev

  • Current Rank: #3 (2025-10-20)
  • 3 Months Ago: #3 (2025-07-21)
  • 6 Months Ago: #2 (2025-04-21)
  • 9 Months Ago: #2 (2025-01-13)
  • 12 Months Ago: #3 (2024-10-21)

Player Metrics

Jacob Fearnley

Form Index: 46.9
ELO Rating: 878.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1544.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 209.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 6.6
Clay: 7.8
Grass: 5.9
Serve Rating: 96.1
Return Rating: 88.6

Alexander Zverev

Form Index: 48.6
ELO Rating: 5630.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1874.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 50.7
Clay: 54.0
Grass: 59.9
Serve Rating: 96.5
Return Rating: 87.7

Recent Matches

Jacob Fearnley
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Hamad Medjedovic (2-0) hard Vienna 105 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Dalibor Svrcina (2-0) hard Vienna 104 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Elias Ymer (0-2) hard Stockholm 75 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Tallon Griekspoor (2-1) hard Stockholm 164 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Alexander Zverev (0-3) hard Us Open 174 min

Alexander Zverev
❌ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Arthur Rinderknech (1-2) hard Shanghai 132 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Valentin Royer (2-0) hard Shanghai 98 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Daniil Medvedev (0-2) hard Beijing 82 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Corentin Moutet (2-1) hard Beijing 158 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Lorenzo Sonego (2-0) hard Beijing 90 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Jacob Fearnley
vs
3
Alexander Zverev
Hard
0 - 3
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The Round of 32 match at the Vienna tournament will feature Jacob Fearnley against Alexander Zverev on a hard surface. With Zverev ranked 3rd in the world and Fearnley at 81st, the odds favor Zverev significantly, with a predicted win probability of 79.25% compared to Fearnley's 20.75%. The expected total number of games played in this encounter is set at 23.

Match Analysis

Alexander Zverev holds a significant advantage over Jacob Fearnley in terms of ranking, sitting at 3rd compared to Fearnley's 81st. Zverev's Elo rating of 5630.05 also far surpasses Fearnley's 878.29, indicating a substantial gap in competitive experience and performance. Both players have similar fatigue levels, with Zverev at 0 minutes and Fearnley at 209 minutes, suggesting that Fearnley may be at a disadvantage due to cumulative fatigue from earlier matches. Zverev's surface strength index of 50.75 is also much higher than Fearnley's 6.62, which indicates he is more adept on hard courts. In their recent performances, Jacob Fearnley has shown some form, winning his last two matches in Vienna against Hamad Medjedovic and Dalibor Svrcina, both without dropping a set. However, prior to these wins, he suffered a defeat against Elias Ymer in Stockholm. Conversely, Zverev's recent form has been mixed, with a loss to Arthur Rinderknech in his last outing and another defeat against Daniil Medvedev in Beijing. Nevertheless, he secured a solid win against Valentin Royer, indicating that he can still compete at a high level despite some recent setbacks.

Final Prediction

The predicted winner, Alexander Zverev, has a clear edge due to his higher ranking, superior Elo rating, and remarkable surface strength index. One key factor to observe will be Zverev's service game, as his mean serve index of 96.53 marginally exceeds Fearnley's 96.11, which could dictate the flow of the match.